[i习作temp] argument65 [0710G突击先锋小组]第17次作业 [复制链接]

freepooh
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电梯直达

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发表于 2007-8-8 15:04:53 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 556       TIME: 00:40:00       DATE: 2007-8-8
14:34:12

1. last year, Wisconsin
2. the World magazine
3. limiting inventory
4. profit
In this memo, the author recommends that the company would improve profits by discontinuing the stocking many of the varieties of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses. To substitute this conclusion, the author indicates the record of last year. Moreover, a recent survey is also cited in this argument. Therefore, the author comes to his point on the basis of reducing expenses by limiting inventory. The argument is convincing at a first glance. However, careful scrutiny would reveal how flimsy it is.
As is the threshold problem, the author falsely assumes that the best-selling would continue without considering other changing factors. It is possible that the buyers dislike these domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin because of eating too much during this one year. It is also possible that a kind of new emerging imported cheese has gradually played the main role in the market and will take the place of the former domestic cheddar cheeses. Even if this trend will continue, all the domestic cheddar cheese from Wisconsin are popular do not mean the same popularity of all the domestic cheeses or the same cheeses from other places.  However, without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author could not convince me the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin will still be welcomed by the buyers.
In the second place, the author cited a recent survey which the author does not provide any firm evidence to support. The statement requires qualification in three aspects. Firstly, the author provides no statistical and representative evidence. How many citizens have took part in this survey? What are their occupations? And whether the informers are mostly those who favors of the domestic cheeses?  However, lack of such details the author could not reach the conclusion. Secondly, the recent survey made by the World magazine is not liable to believe in. The possibility that the producers are in support of the World magazine or invest this magazine leads this argument more unlikelihood.
In the third place, the author does not provide evidence to show that it is effective or useful by limiting inventory. Perhaps the expenses by limiting inventory has done little or even nothing in reducing expenses. If it is this case, then the author cannon draw the conclusion.
In the final analysis, even if the author could proves the former assumptions, the author provide no such evidence to demonstrate that the best way to improve profits is to discontinue stocking many of the varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. It is possible that the profits gained from varieties of imported cheese are on an increasing trend and will override that of the domestic cheeses. It is also possible that new kinds of cheeses will emerge at a startling rate. However, without providing evidence to substantiate it, the argument is unconvincing.
To sum up, the author fails to reach the conclusion the company would improve profits by discontinuing the stocking many of the varieties of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses. To better evaluate it, the author should provide a more statistical and representative survey. Moreover, I would also like to know the other measures that would contribute to increase the profits.