[i习作temp] issue184 [复制链接]

nortrom
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电梯直达

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发表于 2009-2-18 15:50:20 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

issue184 科研

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."在没有数据之前就下结论是大忌。

正文：
The speaker asserts that it is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data. I tend to agree with him in most situation. After all, a result with data is more persuasive. However, I have to concede that somtimes it is accptable or even a good idea to theorize without data.

The reason for my agreement mainly lies in the way we think and behave. It is human nature to consider the possible results before making certain actions. We admit a theory only after we are provided with strong evidence. A good instance can be found in physics research. The famous experiment on the Leaning Tower of Pisa made by Galileo revealed the theory of freefall movement. We may take it for granted now, but two thousand of years ago, people believed that heavy things fall faster. We feel sad for them because they had not just made an experiment. Similarly, it is unreliable for us to make conclusion by instinct in physics reserch nowadays. Because science develops so quickly that the most advanced knowledge has surpassed our daily experience. The only fact we can rely on is data from the experiment. Besides, we should be very careful before publishing a theory.

On the other hand, there are situation that require us to theorize immediately that we have little time to find data. Imagine that a dying person is sent to the hospital for emergency treatment. The most important thing for the doctors is to take every possible measurements to save the person. If they decided to make sure what kind of disease the patient was suffering from and what was the best way to cure it before taking any steps, the patient would surely have died. The same holds true for the government when facing such social problems as economic crisis. It is obvious that the government should do something to stimulate the market. However, whatever measures it takes, there will be thousands of reasons to oppose them, for there is not enough evidence to gurantee the best result. If the government take every details into account, it will not be able to make a decision.

Moreover, I’d like to add that sometimes it is a good way to theorize first and find the data later in our lives. It is a popular method which is applied in mathmatics to work out a guess first and find provements then. If we cannnot find evidence to defeat the theory, we have to admit the initial guess. Sometimes people might be afraid they are wrong and thus being not willing to publish this theory. Actually it does not meet the requirments of academic spirit. We appreciate original research more and more nowadays, if we do not theorize until we have got enough data, the process will be very slow.

In the final analysis, the regular way to raise a theory is through data. In this case, the theory is more comprehensive and reliable. However, if we put more efforts on the way to get a theory, that is to say, we do not care much about whether the theory is true or not, then we can probably achieve new progress.

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sliping
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沙发

发表于 2009-2-20 00:49:49 |只看该作者

issue184 科研

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."在没有数据之前就下结论是大忌。

正文：
The speaker asserts that it is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data. I tend to agree with him in most situation很少见到这种表达啊 to some degree呢？. After all, a result with data is more persuasive. However, I have to concede that somtimes it is accptable or even a good idea to theorize without data.

The reason for my agreement mainly lies in the way we think and behave. It is human nature to consider the possible results before making certain actions. We admit a theory only after we are provided with strong evidence. A good instance can be found in physics research. The famous experiment on the Leaning Tower of Pisa made by Galileo revealed the theory of freefall movement. We may take it for granted now, but two thousand of years ago, people believed that heavy things fall faster. We feel sad for them because they had not just made an experiment. Similarly, it is unreliable for us to make conclusion by instinct in physics reserch nowadays. Because science develops so quickly that the most advanced knowledge has surpassed our daily experience. The only fact we can rely on is data from the experiment这里有点不符合逻辑吧因为科学发展的快所以只能凭数据做结论是这样吗？. Besides, we should be very careful before publishing a theory.

On the other hand, there are situation that require us to theorize immediately that we have little time to find data. Imagine that a dying person is sent to the hospital for emergency treatment. The most important thing for the doctors is to take every possible measurements to save the person. If they decided to make sure what kind of disease the patient was suffering from and what was the best way to cure it before taking any steps, the patient would surely have died.试问不知道何种病怎么治疗？The same holds true for the government when facing such social problems as economic crisis. It is obvious that the government should do something to stimulate the market. However, whatever measures it takes, there will be thousands of reasons to oppose them, for there is not enough evidence to gurantee the best result. If the government take every details into account, it will not be able to make a decision.从别的领域下手很好只是这两个例子貌似和数据结论关系不大啊尤其是后面这个你应该再多说些市场上的数据分析什么的吧

Moreover, I’d like to add that sometimes it is a good way to theorize first and find the data later in our lives. It is a popular method which is applied in mathmatics to work out a guess first and find provements then. If we cannnot find evidence to defeat the theory, we have to admit the initial guess. 例子很新颖啊很好Sometimes people might be afraid they are wrong and thus being not willing to publish this theory. Actually it does not meet the requirments of academic spirit. We appreciate original research more and more nowadays, if we do not theorize until we have got enough data, the process will be very slow.

In the final analysis, the regular way to raise a theory is through data. In this case, the theory is more comprehensive and reliable. However, if we put more efforts on the way to get a theory, that is to say, we do not care much about whether the theory is true or not, then we can probably achieve new progress.总结的不太好吧我也有点说不上来没看太懂

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