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本帖最后由 gottlieb 于 2009-8-20 20:09 编辑
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
The editor exhibits some evidences to support the opinion that the sales of Whirlwind(W) video games will increase dramatically in the next few monthes. However, for my part of view, those evidences given by the editor are not only insufficent but also unsound.
First of all, the editor does not tell us the credibility about the survey. The unsound can be discussed by following aspects. The survey perhaps is incompetent. It does not include enough people who have intrerest in video games and
will purchase video games. If this point is real, the result that 10 to 25 age group most likely to play video games is unsound or even false. Even if enough people have surveyed, the survey is also invalid. The reason is the editor does not show us how many chioces are in the survey. People who attended in the survey, perhaps, are led into an answer which is design by the man designed it. If this is the fact, the reality of the survey should be considered again. Moreover, the relationship between the survey and the dramatically increasing is indirect. Too many details should be pondered and can dicide whether players will purchase the video games will be discussed below.
It is worth pointing that too much limits limit the increase of sales . When the company introduces several games to the market, the competents of this company, perhaps, has introduced the similar games to the players. The editor does give enough information to us to believe that the W's games are competent enough. It may be that other companies' games are better than W's, the sales of W company will decline more than before because they have spent money to research new games with lifelike graphics. Even though the Ws' games are the best in the market, the sales of video games perhaps barriers by these reasons.
As stating in the argument, games which W company introduces have lifelike graphics and require the most up to date computers. Perhaps, unfortunatelly most of players do not have such most up to date computers. Their computers cannot work the game. This point will directlly decrease the sales of Ws' new video games. On the other hand, the argument says that the 10 to 25 age-group most likely play video games, however the editor forgets to ponder this point that the purchase ability of this group. If they just have great intresteing in playing games, but they do not have enough money to purchase games. Sales of video games perhaps still cannot be improved. So this evidence is also unsound enough to support the editor’s final idea that the sales of W video games increase dramatically in next few months.
Even if I concede all points which are really suspect, the conclusion of this argument still should be reconsider. Introducing good games to the market is just one way to increase the sales, in other words, the real reasons of decline is not caused games. Such the manegment, Sale planes, and so forth also can contribute the decline in over past two years. The editor should rule out these possibility before he or she gets the conclusion about after introducing games into markets.
In sum, the conclusion, W company will increase the salse dramatically in next few months, is unvalid and unsound. If the editor want to convice us to hold the same idea, points stated above should be proved powerfully at least. |
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