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本帖最后由 飘飘zly 于 2009-7-11 11:34 编辑
Argument65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
From the memo, the president of a chain of cheese stores draws a conclusion that the best way to profits in all the shops is to concentrate primarily on domestic cheese, not the input ones. To substantiate the recommendation, the president point out the evidence that, in Wisconsin, the five best-selling cheeses are the domestic cheddar cheeses at the newest shop. In addition, citing the recent suspect survey by Cheeses of the World magazine, subscribers of the survey prefer the domestic cheeses increasingly. This argument suffers from several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
To begin with, the president fails to support the statement that the best-selling cheeses provided throughout the United States are the domestic ones. There is the unwarranted assumption that the newest store’s best selling of the domestic cheddar cheeses, in Wisconsin, is the type of the condition of the overall America. Without eliminating the possibility of other parts of America, such as New York, Washington, and so on, the domestic cheddar cheeses were not sold best in their stores, or, the tasty of the domestic cheddar cheese was not appreciated by their residents who might make preference to the input cheeses.
Admittedly, the domestic cheddar cheeses, indeed, are popular with all American, the evidence that the domestic cheeses were best-selling in the stores is scant in the argument. Because, the selling of cheddar cheeses, as the individual, does not effectively reflect the sell condition of the domestic ones all over the country. It is entirely possibility that other brands of domestic cheeses were not bought by the people in the United Stated cities, especially in Wisconsin.
As for the recent survey by Cheeses of the World, the magazine subscribers, the respondents of this survey, are not statistically significant in number and not representative of overall the American. This leads to fail to lend sound support that the people throughout the United States prefer the domestic cheeses increasingly. Moreover, assumed that it is the effective sample of this survey, the result indicating preference for domestic cheeses is not tantamount to that buying the domestic cheeses in the stores.
In sum, the president’s recommendation for only stocking the domestic cheeses to improve profits is unpersuasive, at least based on the memo. To make the argument convincing, the president would have to provide more marketing information about the domestic cheeses throughout the United States including most brand domestic cheeses selling in the nationwide store, in order that the domestic cheeses were best-selling and a chain of cheese stores could make a profit. |
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