[a习作temp] argument147 [dancing in the dark]-by lisa [复制链接]

lisa0702
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发表于 2009-7-23 21:20:28 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 501
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009/7/23 11:03:49

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will have a dramatic increase in the next few months. To justify the claim, the arguer cites a recent survey which shows that video-players prefer game providing lifelike graphics, the same type of game as Whirlwind has just introduced. In addition, the arguer points out that with an extensive advertising campaign, the company can earn a good profit from people 10 to 25 years old. However, the argument rests on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, and is unpersuasive as it stands.

In the first place, in concluding that by introducing new games, Whirlwind video games will reverse its former situation, the arguer rests on the assumption that the decline of sales in the past is actually due to its unpopular video games. However, the argument fails to substantiate the assumption. It is entirely possible that other factors other than the video games are responsible for the decline, such as bad reputation among the consumers, too far-away from the center of the city, etc. If either of the scenarios is attributable to the decline, the conclusion that by changing its video games the company will reverse the situation begs the question.

In the second place, the credibility of the survey is not well supported in the argument. The arguer does not provide exact data concerning the actual number of respondents conveyed in the survey and shows no evidence regarding whether the respondents are representative or not. What's more, what questions were asked in the survey is also a unknown. If the survey is just one single-choice between many ridiculous games and lifelike games, it is surely that most people have to choose games with lifelike graphics, even though some of respondents may not actually like such games. Thus, in order to better evaluate the argument, the credibility of the survey must be better illustrated.

In the third place, the argument fails to demonstrate the point that people 10 to 25 years old will necessarily buy video games in Whirlwind. The arguer overlooks other factors that may also influence consumer's choice aside from lifelike graphics. It is possible that the players do not like the music or pictures in Whirlwind's games, thereby will not buy their products. And even assuming players enjoy the game, whether they will actually buy it is still a question, for people at this age are mainly depending on their parents to have spare money, and may not be able to afford such video games introduced by Whirlwind.

To sum up, the conclusion that Whirlwind video games will increase its sales dramatically is not well supported. To better evaluate the argument, the arguer has to provide more evidence concerning the credibility of the survey and demonstrate the assumption that people 10 to 25 will actually buy their products. What's more, we would still need more information regarding the fact that the declining of sales in the past is primarily attributed to the types of games Whirlwind introduced, not others.