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tofee
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电梯直达

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发表于 2010-2-7 22:43:20 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

1. The arguer’s conclusion based on a suspicious survey.-ànot so much people take work home.(main fallacy)(调查结果不可信)
2. other factors may be responsible to the statage sales of the office-supply departments.（可以合并到其他段中，不是主要的）
3. there is no direct casual relationship between the homework and the home office machines and stationary buying.(main fallacy)（情况并不一定导致购买）
4. profitable is the foundation of not just revenue but also expenses, even if the strategy lift the sales, there is no evident that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the stores.（购买并不一定导致利润）

The arguer predicts a “foreseeable rise” of the office supplies based on a survey, indicating a work-at-home trend. Then, the arguer suggests that, the Valu-Mart should increase stock of office supplies and the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores. I found that the argument unconvincing for several reasons.

First, the arguer’s conclusion based on a suspicious survey. Without the size of the sample pool and the demographic profile which it covers, the author fail to assure me that the survey results accurately reflect the potential rise of the product.

Secondly, a threshold assumption upon which the recommendation relies is that the work-at-home trend could booster the sales of the office-supply. However, this assumption is ungrounded. There is no direct casual relationship between the work-at-home trend and the potential buying. It is entirely possible that, most of the work taken home is those need not specific machine. Moreover, other factors may responsible to the stagnancy of the office supply department sale. There are many factors could influence the sales, such as the scientific arrangement, the qualities of the goods, the service or the position of the mart. If there are other critical factors which give the sales negative influence, the efficacy of strategy may be limited except tackle the critical problems first.

Even if the work-at-home trend could booster the sales of the office supply, the author concludes too hastily that office-supply department will become the most profitable component of the stores. Profit is the function not only the revenues but also the expenses. Even if sales rise significantly, the margin may be relative low comparing to other kinds of goods because of the low price or high expense. Moreover, the author fails to inform us the proportion of the office-supply department in the mart. It is possible that, the revenue of this department only account for a small proportion of the whole mart. If so, then the office-supply department may not be the most profitable component.

In sum, without additional information prudent audience should refrain from following the arguer’s recommendation. To better assess the soundness of this recommendation it could be helpful to know the following: (1) the demographic profile of the survey’s respondents; (2) the extent to which the work-at-home trend responsible to the sales of the office-supply goods; (3) the proportion of the department’s revenue account to the whole revenue of the mart.

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wcnk
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沙发

发表于 2010-2-8 13:58:27 |只看该作者

改好了，在I25里

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tofee
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板凳

发表于 2010-2-8 22:11:25 |只看该作者

The arguer predicts a “foreseeable rise” of the office supplies based on a survey, indicating a work-at-home trend. Then, the arguer suggests that, the Valu-Mart should increase stock of office supplies and the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores. I found that the argument unconvincing for several reasons.

First, the arguer’s conclusion based on a suspicious survey. Without the size of the sample pool and the demographic profile which it covers, the author fail to assure me that the survey results accurately reflect the potential rise of the product.

Secondly, a threshold assumption upon which the recommendation relies is that the work-at-home trend could booster the sales of the office-supply. However, this assumption is ungrounded. There is no direct casual relationship between the work-at-home trend and the potential buying. It is entirely possible that, most of the work taken home is those need not specific machine. Moreover, other factors may responsible to the stagnancy of the office supply department sale. There are many factors could influence the sales, such as the scientific arrangement, the qualities of the goods, the service or the position of the mart. If there are other critical factors which give the sales negative influence, the efficacy of strategy may be limited except tackle the critical problems first.

Even if the work-at-home trend could booster the sales of the office supply, the author concludes too hastily that office-supply department will become the most profitable component of the stores. Profit is the function not only the revenues but also the expenses. Even if sales rise significantly, the margin may be relative low comparing to other kinds of goods because of the low price or high expense. Moreover, the author fails to inform us the proportion of the office-supply department in the mart. It is possible that, the revenue of this department only account for a small proportion of the whole mart. If so, then the office-supply department may not be the most profitable component.

In sum, without additional information prudent audience should refrain from following the arguer’s recommendation. To better assess the soundness of this recommendation it could be helpful to know the following: (1) the demographic profile of the survey’s respondents; (2) the extent to which the work-at-home trend responsible to the sales of the office-supply goods; (3) the proportion of the department’s revenue account to the whole revenue of the mart.

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