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[a习作temp] 【WinTogether小组】第一次作业+LinSen（顺便推荐种逻辑分析工具） [复制链接]

linsen1989
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电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2010-12-21 23:53:20 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 linsen1989 于 2010-12-23 17:23 编辑

为声援Joey，先发一个以前写的提纲。
从数据库中的E-R模型和E-R图中受到启发，用来分析Argument，发现对许多题目很有效。
以下为Argu2的逻辑图解

Argument 2

The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

1、【Alternative Explanation】规定不一定是导致房价上升的原因，也可能是：人口增多引起的需求增加，经济发展迅速。
2、【False Extrapolation】7年前的情况不适用于现在，可能人们审美观变了，现在喜欢多样性而不是统一。
3、【False Analog】B地区的情况不一定适用于DA，作者没考虑两地间文化、交通、住户特点的区别。

Argument 6

The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

1、【Insufficient Condition】临近处没有jazz club不代表C Notes会占用全部市场，可能人们宁愿跑很远去club，或者根本不喜欢去any club。而且65miles是不是远还要看交通情况、该俱乐部的地理位置来确定。

2、【Insufficient Condition】the extremely popularity of jazz in Monroe does not necessarily indicate CNote will have the local market. 还要依赖于当地消费水平、业余时间的多寡、enjoy jazz的方式等

3、【Changed scope】nationwide survey 不一定依偎着M地区也这样。

【Different Conception】投资于jazz和去club不是同一个概念

【Insufficient Condition】即便以上全部满足，也无法保证一定盈利，因为还和club的管理、营销、市场大环境有关。

Argument 8

The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."

1、【Vague Data】Mesa20%的增长不一定很多，可能他起点太低了。
【False Extrapolation】即便过去增长快，也不能预示未来，可能到达瓶颈。
2、【Insufficient Condition】即便Mesa很牛，但是合并后不能保证占有市场，还要考虑两家公司的经营理念是否冲突、产品范围是否能互补
3、【Changed scope】即便合并了，卖DS不一定获利，因为它在小区域内畅销，但可能不适合其他地区的风俗习惯、饮食偏好。
【Changed scope】而且DS仅仅是snack的一种，仅靠它的畅销不能保证占有snack年龄段市场

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linsen1989
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沙发

发表于 2010-12-23 18:32:39 |只看该作者

本帖最后由 linsen1989 于 2010-12-23 19:10 编辑

Argument 16
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia. "Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
1、【Alternative Explanation】L州的教育和公共医疗做的更好不一定仅仅由lottery引起，可能是他们经济发达，政府更加重视education和public health
2、【False Analog】两州情况不一样，公众对lottery的认可度，education和public health的运作机制不同，可能导致无法发行，或无法发挥作用。
3、【Changed scope】survey in capital city 不能代表全州
【Different Conception】gambling和lottery不同

Argument 21
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of
Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable
supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our
deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should
resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not
offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor
no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand.
Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the
past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher
prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company
profits will increase."

1、【Insufficient Condition】have a new fabric supplier 不是resume production 的充分条件，如果其他的欠缺也无法恢复。可能技术人员、机器设备已经没了，也可能公司的市场定位已经变了。
2、【Different Conception】supply 和demand 不是一回事，这几年没有供应，可能正因为消费者没有需求
3、【Insufficient Condition】other types of clothing 价格上涨，不一定就得出alpaca's price will significantly increase。可能本来价格就很高了，很难再涨上去，也可能人们审美观变了，不再喜欢。
4、【Insufficient Condition】即便是卖的很好，公司也不一定获利。需要重新采购设备，招聘技术人员，花钱打开市场，这些都是很大的成本。

Argument 38
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council. "An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

1、【No Connection】作者没给出证据证明 in nearby East Meria fish consumption和cold之间的关系。可能他们注重健康，经常锻炼，也可能是此地气候温和，人们不容易感冒
2、【Alternative Explanation】West Meria 的absenteeism 还有其他的原因，不仅仅是get cold，可能是人们有其他的事情，或者偷懒，或者其他的疾病。
【Beautify Myself】即便许多人旷课的理由是cold，他们真正的流理由可能是偷懒，看球赛，只是不好意思说出来而已。
3、【False Analog】即便以上成立，吃鱼也不一定适用于本地。两个地方其他的生活习惯多有不同。
【Different Conception】即便可行，吃fish oil 不一定能提供和fish一样的nutrition。

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linsen1989
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板凳

发表于 2010-12-23 19:31:53 |只看该作者

本帖最后由 linsen1989 于 2010-12-23 20:42 编辑

Argument 193
The Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day. Yet a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers calls the usefulness of daily homework into question. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district of Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week, if at all.

1、【Biased Sample】math and science teachers is not capable to stand for the whole teacher
2、【Alternative Explanation】Marlee教育成功，可能是因为其他的原因：经费多、老师认真、学校秩序好
3、【样本空间太小】两个学校的对比无法说明问题
4、【极端】即使作业太多真的是成绩差的原因，那也不能减少的太过分了。

Argument 206
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper. "Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."

【Biased Sample】 softball and soccer players，in several major cities
【Changed scope】全国平均水平，不代表P地也受伤很多
【片面】作者根本没有提到advantages，无法权衡利弊
【极端】停止组织所有athletic competition for children under nine.

Argument 209
The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company. "In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

【Alternative Explanation】利润下跌可能是因为市场不景气，其他部门出问题，不一定是Pat的过失。同样，Starlight公司利润上升也不一定是Rosa的功劳。
【False Analog】即便以上成立，两家公司和管理理念，市场范围可能有很多差异，Rosa不一定能管理好。
【Changed scope】即便Rosa能管理好，但也不能根据短期利润判断出worth it，利润仅仅是公司的指标之一，还有许多其他的方面需要考虑，例如企业文化、市场扩展等等

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小飞行
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地板

发表于 2010-12-23 20:29:21 |只看该作者

森哥这逻辑图示很给力啊，嗯，有空我也去画画试试，挺直观的

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