第四套第12题:
12.The organizers of tomorrow's outdoor concert
announced that it will go on tomorrow on schedule
unless bad weather is forecast or too few advance
tickets are sold. If the concert is canceled, refunds
will be made to ticket holders. Since some ticket
holders have already been issued refunds even though
more than enough advance tickets were sold, it must
be the case that bad weather is forecast.
Which of the following is an error of reasoning con-
tained in the argument?
(A) It proceeds as if a condition, which by itself is
enough to guarantee a certain result, is the only
condition under which that result would occur.
(B) It bases a conclusion that is known to require
two conditions on evidence that bears on only
one of those conditions.
(C) It explains one event as being caused by another
event, even though both events must actually
have been caused by some third, unidentified
event.
(D) It treats evidence for the absence of one condi-
tion under which a circumstance would occur
as conclusive evidence that that circumstance
will not occur.
(E) Evidence given to support the conclusion actually
undermines it.