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Argument 47
Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
提纲:1.在亚洲欧洲某些地区的报道不一定代表了全球的变冷趋势
2. 在亚洲文档中没有闪光的描述并不一定说明就没有流星;同样,有大的声音不一定就有火山爆发
3. 就算上述情况都是事实,也不能推出
31’21’’ 478 words
In this argument, the arguer concludes that in the mid-six century the world is experiencing a cooling trend and volcanic eruption should account for this trend. However, based on a series on unfounded assumptions, I find this argument quite poorly supported.
In the first place, the dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperature reported by some of historical accounts in Asia and Europe do not necessarily indicate the earth suddenly becomes cold at that time. For one thing, the arguer unfairly equals the dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures with a cooling trend in climate. It is entirely possible that there was a severe sand storm that year which covered the sun light for a long time, and therefore reduces the temperature considerably. For another, given that the Asia-Euro continent is experiencing a cooling procedure, there is insufficient evidence to indicate that this is a global phenomenon. The arguer overlooks the possibility that the Asia-Euro continent is suffering from freezing cold weather due to the south warding glacier, while climate remains relatively warm in other continent of the world. Without sufficient evidence concerning this issue, I am not convinced of the assumed global cooling trend in the mid-six century.
Moreover, the arguer commits a hasty conclusion. The fact that no extant historical records of the time mention a sudden bright flash of light serves little, if any to rule out the chance a large meteorite collision. Perhaps the collision happened in remote places, for instance, Tibet, where no one inhabits there was able to record this phenomenon, or perhaps people's recordings of the collision turn, if any, turned to ashes after so many years of burial under the ground. Similarly, the mere fact that some surviving Asian historical records of the time mention a loud boom does not convince me the occurring of a volcanic eruption. It is possible that ancient recorder were referring to the assumed volcanic eruption when they mention a loud boom in their accounts. Conclusively, the arguer does not provide enough evidence to substantiate his or her claim mentioned above.
Even if the global cooling trend in the mid-six century, as the arguer is eager to verify, is true, and there was no large meteorite collision and a volcanic eruption did happen at all, I am still convinced of the arguer's conclusion. The arguer ignores the possibility that the cooling trend was actually caused by something other than a volcanic eruption. There is possibility that the freezing was caused by the sudden cooling of the core of the earth or other unknown process. To substantiate this claim, the arguer has to provide further evidence.
In conclusion, this argument is weakly supported. The arguer is unable to verify the global cooling trend in the mid-six century, and there is insufficient evidence to establish a causal relationship between the volcanic eruption and the global cooling.
[ 本帖最后由 lastangel 于 2007-2-23 00:57 编辑 ] |
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