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140The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.
"During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college."
In this argument, the author concludes that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University (ECU) for another college without her salary raise and promotion. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.
First of all, the author’s evidences are insufficient to support the conclusion. Obviously, author does not provide enough information on the willing which the Professor Thomas would like to leave. We are told nothing about the specific conditions about the Professor. Maybe the academic environment of Elm City University is so good that suiting for her teaching and reaching style, or the university is closed to her home what is definitely convenience for her daily life. If the other school invites her to join in, but she doesn’t wish to change her work environment, the raise and the promotion are unnecessary. Therefore we should not be so sure about the conclusion that Thomas would like to leave.
Secondly, the author draws anther insufficient conclusion that the largest class illustrates her is popularity. There is no direct relationship between the number of student taking the course and the popularity of the teacher who is engage in the course. In most instances, this is an unwarranted assumption for the simple reason that we know nothing about the characters of her botany curriculum, whether a required course or an optional course. So if the botany is a certain kind of foundation class and that needs all students to get the credits, there would no any strange that Thomas has the biggest class in ECU. Thus, we can not raise the Professor’s salary according to whether she is welcomed by students or not.
In addition, the author commits give Thomas “a promotion to Department Chairperson” for her good performance on teach and research. Even if Professor is good at teaching and well in research, she may not be an excellent lead as a department chairperson. This is a fallacious reasoning unless the author can provide persuasive evidences to show she has the capacity of the management. And, even she could do the leader job, she would spend part of her energy on the daily affairs in her department and that may influence her teach and research. So, giving her the promotion is unconvinced.
To sum up, the conclusion of the raise and promotion lacks of credibility. Regardless of who the author is, he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should give more evidences about the above-mentioned possibilities.
147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
1 调查中的player不一定就是ad的受众 两者不能完全等同起来 所以,是否玩家or观众会买游戏都是未知数
2 尽管lifelike graphics是最重要的游戏玩家在意的方面,但是其他方面不能忽略,eg 声音,互动性,是否和目前电影等娱乐信息结合……
公司引进的这些游戏是否在各个方面都有竞争力?
3 不多说了 对调查的质疑……
4 公司卖不出去还和当时的大环境有关。eg 经济萧条 连吃饭都有问题 还有心思玩游戏? |
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