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发表于 2007-8-16 17:01:06 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT153 - The following is from an editorial in the Midvale Observer, a local newspaper.

"Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Alta has steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that prime-time television-programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.-should show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time."
WORDS: 340 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2007-8-16 16:48:07

In this editorial, the author recommends that television viewers should require that television programmers decrease the number of violence shown during prime time to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta. To substantiate his recommendation, the author cites the result of several national study to show the correlation the teenage crime and violent programs. Also he cites the result of a survey to show the parents' complaint. However, a careful examination reveals that this editorial contains several critical flaws as follows.

The threshold problem of this editorial is the author falsely based the increase of teenage crime on the increase in violence shown on television. There is no direct evidence to show that there is a causal relationship between the increase of teenage crime and the increase of the violence shown on television. I concede the latter can influence the former. But there are still have some other reasons for the increase of teenage crime. For example, the bad social circumstance, poor security condition and ill education may lead to the increase. Without ruling out all these possible reasons, the author can not make me convince.

Secondly, the result of the survey conducted by the Observer is suspect. The author cites that over 90 percent of the respondents indicated that prime-time television-programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. should show less violence. However the author does not provide the exact data of the survey. Perhaps only a few people participate in the survey. Or perhaps the parents who respond to the survey are the children's parent who has crime. The author's failure to consider all these possibilities will undermine the credibility of this editorial.

Finally even if the increase of teenage crime is relative with the increase of the violence shown on television, this editorial is still incredible. The author relies on an unwarranted assumption that reducing the amount of violence shown during prime-time will do effect to lower the rate of teenage crime. It is possible that this measure is not effective. Due to lack such evidence to evaluate the measure, I can not believe it will do work.

To sum up, the recommendation is not well-supported. To validate the recommendation, the author should provide the clearer statistics of the survey. To better assess the recommendation, I also need to know the evaluation of the measure.