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TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 512 TIME: 上午 12:28:23 DATE: 2006-7-20
In this argument, the author asserts that the so-called shyness during infancy is due to levels of melatonin before birth, and the shyness would continue to exist in a child's later life. To support his assertion, a study covers a span of thirteen years is mentioned in the argument, through which the arguer intends to establish some interrelationship between the melatonin and the expression of shyness. Unfortunately, the conclusion drawn from the evidence mentioned above is not convincing enough for us to accept.
To begin with, the study conducted thirteen years ago is statistically unreliable as it stands. Firstly, no evidence is provided that the chosen group of 25 infants is basically the same in some other important characters, such as the gender, the age, etc. Also, whether the subject is representative enough is dubious, since 25 constitutes such a little portion that it could lend little credence to the subsequent deduction. In view of these statistical unreliability, it is unreasonable to draw any conclusion based on statistics of only 25 infants.
Even assuming that the study is substantiated enough, the causality established between the shyness and the chemical secretion of melatonin is unverified. On the one hand, no evidence indicates that the mild distress is the symptom of the shyness. Perhaps this distress is due to the physical discomfort rather than shyness. On the other hand, the arguer fails to provide scientific evidence demonstrating the cause-and –effect relationship between the shyness of infants and the melatonin. Perhaps the melatonin could work only to the mother, rather than the infant, since it is the mother who creates the melatonin. Besides, as for infants, other possibilities could be responsible for the shyness as well, such as the family environment, the inherent characteristic, etc. Thus, without precluding all the alternatives, the facts in the argument alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship.
Given that the shyness during infancy is related the melatonin, whether the correlation would continue into their later life is open to doubt. The teenagers’ subjective feelings cannot serve as the sound evidence indicating the existence of shyness. Perhaps the children make up the fact which misleads the judge of the researchers. Or perhaps the children say so in order to be accord with others. If so, maybe our researchers should resort to some scientific equipment to measure the existence of the so-called shyness accurately and effectively. Also, there is no evidence that the melatonin continues to be responsible for the shyness. As infants grow up, other external factors would work. For example, the growth environment, includes the family relationship, friends they make, the interests they gravitate to, etc. It seems that many external factors could better explain the shyness. Again, without ruling out these above-mentioned possibilities, the causality is open to doubt.
In conclusion, the suggestion in the argument is unsound as it stands, for several logical fallacies. To strengthen the arguer’s assertion, more detailed information concerning the sample characters, the efficacy of measurement of the shyness should be provided. Also, other potential reasons should be further investigated. |
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