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ILOVEISSUE
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发表于 2007-3-25 13:44:00 |只看该作者 |正序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 638 TIME: 0:29:27 DATE: 2007-3-25

In this article, the author concludes that by limiting the number of rentals, the town can attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents. However, close scrutiny on the evidence provided by the author reveals that it lends little credible support to this conclusion.

In the first place, the mere fact that the population of Balmer Island increase to 100,100 does not follow that they need to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. How many people are there now in the Balmer Island? Are there only 50,000 people? Or are there already 99,000 people in Balmer Island.? If the latter is the case, then the author does not need to care about increase of accidents just for only such little increase in the number of population. Moreover, granted that the population in Balmer city increase significantly, we find no evidence that the accidents will also increase? How about the driving ability of these citizens The author does not mention. If these citizens are very experienced in driving six moped and bicycle rent and they drive very carefully on the roads, then the author's care about the increase of the accidents may be needless.

What is more, even if the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians need to be reduced, limiting the number of rentals is not necessarily effective. Since the author want to limit 50 to 30 per day during the summer season, then can the company really rent over 30 bicycles or island's six mopeds? If this is not the case, and if the company, for example, can only rent 25 bicycles, then the policy recommended by the author will have no effectiveness. Further more, even assuming that the policy can reduce the practical rental numbers of bicycle, the author fails to take into account other ways to get six moped and bicycles. For example, if the price of these facilities in Balmer Island is not very high, or the citizens of Balmer are very wealthy, then it is natural that citizens can choose to buy these bicycles or six moped. In such case, the author's prediction will open to doubt.

Finally, the mere fact that when Torseau's town council enforced the similar limits on moped rentals, 50 percent reduction in moped accidents was achieved does not follow that if Balmer promote the same policy, it will get the same result. First, the author unfairly assumes that the reduction of accidents is due to the policy. Yet, the author may neglect other alternatives to this reduction. Such alternatives may include the fact that the government promoted a education campaign on the safety on driving. Or that the accidents in Toreseau was mainly due to the poor qualities of the roads and at that time relevant institution has improved the quality of the roads such as broadening the road, making the surface of the roads smooth, and the like. In such case, the reduction of accidents may have nothing to do with the policy and the is just the result of the improvement of the road. Moreover, granted that the limiting policy is responsible for the accidents, the author's conclusion is still questionable, because the author fails to take into account the difference between the two cities such as the regions, the weather, the complexity of the roads and so forth. Difference in such factors may affect the result of the policy. Until the author can substantiate this assumption, I remain unconvinced that the policy can attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents.

In sum, this argument has several flaws as discussed above. To bolster it, the author should provide sufficient evidence to show that the accident involving mopeds and pedestrians will increase. To better evaluate this argument, I should also need to know whether there are comparability between the two cities.