ARGUMENT117 倒数的A了，侠义仁心者，请进，请帮忙。谢谢

annasweeUID: 2294850

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 486          TIME: 0:28:54          DATE: 2007-4-15

According to the argument, the author predicts that with increasing the stock of office supplies, their departments will become the most profitable component of the stores. In order to support his prediction, the author also cites a few plausible evidences at first glance. However, deep analysis reflects that there are several logic flaws in it.

To begin with, the survery author raises is not reliable. On one aspect, the author fails to provide the information about the sample in the survey, which means there is uncertain about the backgrounds, job, age, sex. Those are all the important elements related to the survey, because due to the varies of these information may lead the result of the survey to the different direction. For example, if the most samples are the teachers, it is not strange that more work taken home. However, if changes the sample to the job of worker in the equipment department of a FORD, then how can they bring more work home? Is it possible for them to take the car equipment work home? Certainly not! So different jobs may causes the result of the survey varies, so do the other elements. Before the author put forward the detailed information about the sample, such a survey is not quite convincing.

Moreover, grant that the survey is reliable, however, the author still can not demonstrate the work brought home is increasing. Because he only says that 70% of the respondents show that they bring home more work than before. However about the others who do not respond to the survey? No information in the argument tells about their circumstance, maybe they take home less work than they used to. Then, the true fact may be the opposite one as the result of the survey. Unless the author proves that all the samples they researched response to the research.

Finally, even if people nowadays truly bring home more work than before, which does not illustrate that Valu-mark store should increase the stock of home office machines as well as those office supplies. People take more work home does not stand that they will purchase the home office machines. Maybe due to the high price of these machines, they will do those works which needs the machines at their office. Also, no evidence shows that they will increase their office supplies purchase. Common sense tells us that those kinds of supplies are daily use, so maybe those people have already prepared enough those kinds of office supplies. So the author should also provide us that those kinds of good purchase will increase. Then the stock of more those good maybe useful

All in all, the author's prediction is unconvincing. Besides, whether those kinds of good will profit the department is left to prove. So unless the author cites the evidence of the increasing market need as well as the illustration the profit, such a prediction is unconvincing.