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发表于 2005-12-30 23:55:06
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TOPIC:ARGUMENT 170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
Outline:
1 the discovery of harmful bacteria in Gulf oyster is not responsible for it lower price
2 there is no evidence that customers are willing to pay as much for Gulf oysters as Atlantic oysters when they notice the increased safety of them
3 profit. The arguer cannot arbitrarily predict that Gulf oysters' producers would surely gain greater profits in the foreseeable future.
部分参考《北美GRE范文精讲》
In this argument, the arguer concludes that by installing the bacteria-killing process the security of Gulf oyster will increase and consumers are likely to pay the same amount of money for Gulf oysters as Atlantic oysters. And the arguer further predict that, for the aware of the increased safety of Gulf oyster, the producers will obtain greater profits in the futher. At first glance, the argument seems sound, but after close scrutiny I find it suffers severe criticism as fellows.
To begin with, the argument concludes based on a known correlation between the discovery of bacteria in Gulf oyster and the comparatively lower price of them that the former is attributable, at least partly, to the latter. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship. It is highly possible that the quality of Atlantic oyster including the taste, size, level of nutrition and so forth, significantly surpass that of Gulf oyster. For that matter, perhaps the inconvenient transportation of Atlantic oyster was equally responsible for its higher price. Moreover, the arguer has not accounted for the possibility that there is a unique and beneficial component for human health in Atlantic oyster, and for that, customers shifted their inclinations from Gulf oyster to Atlantic oyster. If this is the case, then the arguer's conclusion would lack any merit whatsoever.
Second, the arguer assumes too hastily that if the consumers have noticed the increased safety of Gulf oysters they would certainly be willing to pay as much for them as Atlantic oysters. However, this is not necessarily so. The feasibility of the practicality of the anti-bacteria process is open to doubt. It appears that the Gulf producers are reluctant to complicate the process of production by applying the device. Besides, perhaps the safety process damaged the essential nutrition contained in Gulf oysters while killing the harmful bacteria. Therefore, consumers might not pay a premium for the lower nutritional Gulf oysters. Moreover, consider the habits of oysters' consumers, perhaps it is the five years-a long time that they entrenched their tastes for Atlantic oysters, which cannot be swiched to Gulf oysters in short term. Thus, without accounting for these scenarios, the arguer could not draw any firm conclusions based on this dubious assumption.
Third, even if the customers are willing to pay as much for Gulf oysters as Atlantic oysters, the arguer's prediction that Gulf oysters' producers will obtain greater profits is still unwarranted. We all know that profit is a factor of not only cost but also revenue. Even assuming that the safety process of Gulf oysters would bring more revenues to their producers, however, the increase of producing cost which resulted from the expense on the anti-bacteria process might, to certain degrees, offset the additional income. Further, perhaps their competitors-other oyster manufacturers will decrease their oysters' price for augmenting the market of their products. Thus, Gulf oyster producers would earn minor profits at best, or even none after the adjustment for the inflation.
In sum, the arguer fails to provide key evidence needed to support the assertions. To strengthen it, the arguer must provide stronger evidence that it is the discovery of harmful bacteria that caused the decrease of Gulf oyster's price, and that customers are willing to pay the same bills for Gulf oysters when their producers apply the anti-bacteria process to the production. To better evaluate this argument I would also need to know that the safety process ensures Gulf oyster producers' greater profits in the foreseeable future, as the arguer predicts.
[ Last edited by 11yaoyao on at 2006-1-1 18:55 ] |
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