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6The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
The argument seems at first glance a logical one. In order to support the proposal that a jazz club in Monroe would be an enormous profit-maker, the speaker cites several facts. However, close scrutiny of those facts reveals that they do not necessarily lead to the speaker's assertion.
The speaker bases his\her claim firstly on the fact that the current jazz club is 65 miles away, and that the proposed one, the C Note, would enjoy a local market all to itself. However, the speaker provides no evidence that the far-away jazz club does not act as a potential competitor against the C Note. It is quite possible that jazz fans in Monroe choose to go to the C Note to listen to jazz plays or share their jazz collection not only with the local fans but also fans from outside Monroe. It is equally possible that even if the new club is built in Monroe, jazz fans in Monroe would still prefer the older one because of the familiar atmosphere and natural attachment to something habitual, no matter how long the distance is. Lacking such information whether the old jazz club attracts jazz fans in Monroe despite its long distance, the assertion that the C Note would have the local market all to itself could not be very convincing.
To further support his\her claim, the speaker points out that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. To prove such judgment, the speaker cites three facts including great attendance to the Monroe jazz festival last summer, famous jazz musicians choosing to live in Monroe, and jazz music program being the highest-rated radio program in Monroe. However, such seemingly strong evidence is not directly related to the assertion that jazz is really popular in Monroe. First of all, the fact that over 100,000 people attended jazz festival in Monroe does not mean there are actually 100,000 local jazz fans. Maybe most of them are not local citizens and just one-time travelers. Or if they are local people, they attend the festival not because they are jazz fans but just for fun or a good chance for friend gatherings. Obviously those mentioned above do not comprise the future consumers expected by the C Note jazz club and therefore it would be unrealistic to account for potential profit from them. Secondly, by providing the fact that well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, the speaker suggests that they choose their residence because of the popularity of jazz in Monroe. Yet the speaker does not rule out the possibility that famous jazz musicians decide to live in Monroe because there are fewer enthusiastic jazz fans to bother them in the forms of asking for signatures or being curious in their privacy. It is highly likely that they live in Monroe for the quietness and privacy not available in other places. It is quite common for entertaining celebrities to long for a place where not so many people are interested in their work and themselves. Thirdly, although jazz music program is ranked as the highest-rated radio program in Monroe, those listeners will not necessarily spend money in a jazz club due to their incomes and affordability. They may prefer the free way to enjoy jazz music rather than something more costly like the jazz club. Lacking more detailed information about the specific situation of local jazz fans like the exact number, their preference or their affordability, it would be unwise to assure profit of the proposed jazz club based on the so-called local popularity for jazz.
For additional support the speaker even cites a nation-wide study that a typical jazz fan spend over almost $ 1,000 on jazz entertainment, from which he\her draws the conclusion that C Note jazz club would undoubtedly make money. However, suppose that this study is reliable in the time, sources, and places, there are a couple of questions remaining unanswered. Is the Monroe case a typical representative of the nation-wide situation? Or is it an exception that jazz fans in Monroe only spend a little money on jazz entertainment? Or if they do spend as much as $1,000 on jazz entertainment, does all the money or the greater portion of it go to jazz clubs? Or is the money just spent on CD collections? The speaker makes a specific conclusion according to a larger-scale study, which is not appropriate and precise.
To sum up, the evidence cited in the argument does not lend strong support to the conclusion that the speaker maintains. To better evaluate this argument, we need more information concerning potential competition faced by the proposed jazz club. Furthermore, the speaker would have to find out the true evidence to prove the popularity of jazz in Monroe. Still he\she should look for more detailed and specific study results about local jazz fans’ money spent on jazz entertainment.
个人认为逐条批驳,没有重点,不知怎么办才好。 |
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