argument226 (超时了三分钟)

xiongyicnUID: 192745

226.The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an
automobile manufacturing company.

"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase
dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as
possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections
indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our
existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can
be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site
rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A
major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time
rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."

In this argument, the manager recommends that it is necessary to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. To substantiate the recommendation, the manager points out that there is a great market demand for their automobiles and meanwhile the existed plants' outputs are limited. Besides, the manager of the company reasons that the part-time rotating strategy will be successful based on the success that a major airplane manufacture has achieved five years ago. It seems at first glance to be an obvious claim, but a careful examination would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First of all, the marketing projections are somewhat problematic. "80 million people will want to buy our automobiles", so, what is the exact number of requiring automobiles? Is it necessary that one people needs one automobiles?  It is possible that the 80 million people just needs 40 million or even much fewer if there are many families among these people and a family just needs one automobile. If this case, it is not necessary to open a new manufacturing plant.

Secondly, even assuming there is a demand greater 40 million in the market, would a new plant necessarily lead to the company's thriving? Many relevant factors should be taken into account before the decision is made, such as the cost for building a new plant, the local situation about economic, human resources and transportation system. If the local price of many materials is much higher than many other locations, or the transportation system lags, the cost will accordingly increase.

Last but not least, the manager commits a fallacy of false analogy. The fact that a major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened it new plant five years ago does not assure the company's success. There are some differences between airplane industry and automobile industry, the arguer fails to provide concrete evidence to indicate the success will be achieved using the same strategy as the airplane company. Besides, it is most like that changes have taken place compared with five years ago..

As it stands, the decision about opening a new plant comes too hasty. The manager should provide more precise marketing projections and take many relevant factors about a new plant building. Furthermore, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation until the manager provides sufficient information to convince us that the same strategy as the airplane company will must work well in the automobile company.

xiongyicnUID: 192745

为什么没人帮我看。我顶一下，帮我看看吧。不然根本不知道问题在哪里啊

louaciUID: 159481

In this argument, the manager recommends that it is necessary to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. To substantiate the recommendation, the manager points out that there is a great market demand for their automobiles and meanwhile the existed plants' outputs are limited. Besides, the manager of the company reasons that the part-time rotating strategy will be successful based on the success that a major airplane manufacture has achieved five years ago. It seems at first glance to be an obvious claim, but a careful examination would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First of all, the marketing projections are somewhat problematic. "80 million people will want to buy our automobiles", so, what is the exact number of requiring automobiles? Is it necessary that one people（person) needs one automobiles? It is possible that the 80 million people just needs(need) 40 million or even much fewer if there are many families among these people and a family just needs one automobile. If this(is the) case, it is not necessary to open a new manufacturing plant.（这段打到点子上，很好，呵呵）

Secondly, even assuming there is a demand greater (than)40 million in the market, would a new plant necessarily lead to the company's thriving? Many relevant factors should be taken into account before the decision is made, such as the cost for building a new plant, the local situation about economic, human resources and transportation system. If the local price of many materials is much higher than many other locations, or the transportation system lags, the cost will accordingly increase. (是不是紧接着再说一句成本高了导致新建厂子不赚钱）

Last but not least, the manager commits a fallacy of false analogy. The fact that a major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened it new plant five years ago does not assure the company's success. There are some differences between airplane industry and automobile industry, the arguer fails to provide concrete evidence to indicate the success will be achieved using the same strategy as the airplane company. （这里是不是具体化一点点这种不同，如工作本质，生产时间，技术等不同）Besides, it is most like(likely) that changes have taken place compared with five years ago.（时间引起市场需求，人力成本等变化，引申一点点会不会更清楚）

As it stands, the decision about opening a new plant comes too hasty. The manager should provide more precise marketing projections and take many relevant factors about a new plant building. Furthermore, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation until the manager provides sufficient information to convince us that the same strategy as the airplane company will must work well in the automobile company.

个人意见，谨供参考

xiongyicnUID: 192745

非常感谢，终于有个人帮我改了。哭。。。。。
偶也要认真帮别人改！
哪位再看看。。。

xiongyicnUID: 192745

当时限时写的，所以到倒数第二段时已经不能太展开了，泛泛谈了一下就收笔了。可是还是超了几分钟。