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1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
In this argument, the vice president of Nature's Way recommends opening a new store in Plainsville. To support this recommendation, the author provides/cites several following facts:(1) according to past experience, the profit of our stores is the most high in areas that people pay great attention to healthy lives;(2) sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs;(3) the local health club has more members than ever; and (4) the local schoolchildren are require to take part in a fitness program. After carefully check each of these facts, however, I find that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.
First of all, the most serious problem with the argument is that in addition to the local residents paying great attention to healthy lives, the author fails to consider other possible factors that lead to making the high profits in other areas. Such factors may include the fact that in those areas, only does Nature's Way sell health-related products and therefore the local citizens have no other choices, or their health food is much suitable for the local inhabitants' taste. It is very possible that there are not these circumstances in Plainsville. So it is unconvincing me that the vice president uses previous experience to support his recommendation.
What's more, there is no enough evidence to indicate that high sales of exercise apparels are due to Plainsville citizens buying these products. Perhaps most products are sold to a lot of tourists because Plainsville is a popular resort. In addition, even if exercise is more popular among Plainsville residents than ever before, this does not mean that they would buy health food and other health-related products. It is equally possible that they do not need these products because of regular exercises. In short, without giving other sound/logical/reasonable reasons, the vice president can not convince me that the local citizens have/take/show an interest in Nature Way's products.
Last but not least, in reference to fitness program, I am unable to know from the argument that how long it can last. Perhaps this program has to be stopped after several months or a year because of unexpected causes. Even if this question does not exist, the author does not provide adequate evidences to show that the local schoolchildren would be interested in Nature Way's products. Are there other stores that sell the same products as Nature Way's in Plainsville? If so, it is entirely possible that Plainsville's schoolchildren are much willing to buy other stores' products rather than Nature Way's.
To sum up, under some circumstances, it seems that the recommendation is not entirely without support as presented in the argument. However, to make the argument more convincing, I strongly recommend that Nature's Way company takes more overall consideration and analysis including several points discussed above before decides to open a new store in Plaonsville. Only so can the new store make the best profit.
Thank you very much! |
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