Argument 147 三月的最高频题

JohnmaxWongUID: 2150536

147. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

In this argument, the arguer conclude that the sales trend of Whirlwind (WW) video games is about to be reversed after experiencing a two years decline. To justify this assertion the argument points out that players prefer games providing lifelike graphics according to a survey and WW has introduced several such games with advertising directed at the most likely players’ age-group. I find the argument unpersuasive, for several reasons.

In the first place, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. It is entirely possible that majority of the players surveyed are either younger than 10 or older than 25, resulting in the survey lacking representatives apparently. Considering that people at 10 to 25 years old are the age-group most likely to play vieo games, the survey will be much less convincing in substantiatin the argument’s conclusion. On the contrary, most of the players may prefer the exciting plots in the video games rather than the game graphics. In addition, we are not informed how many people are surveyed but did not respond. Lacking further informations about the survey, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and probably misleading.

Moreover, the author fails to account for other alternative factors that may cause the decrease in video games sales during the last two years.For instance, there mybe problems in the distribution channels and promoting strategies which also play a important role in the sales of the video games. If so, in order to raise the sales, the managers and employees should pay attention to distribution channels and adjust their promoting strategies. So to justify the assertion, the author should narrow down other possible causes and validate that the inferior video graphics is primary reason for the declined games sales.

Last but not least, the assertion is assumed without justification that future conditions remain the same to past times. As everyone knows , sales is the function of supply and demand. It is can be expected that WW’s rivals will also promote his products with an extensive advertising aimed to the most likely video games players group. Or other companies are planning to publish video games with the same level of graphics qualities. And the video game players’ taste and preference may change a lot in the next few months. Any of these scenario, if true, would serve to undermine the claims that the sales of WW’s video games are to increase dramatically in the near future.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidences cited in the analysis do not lend strong supports to author’s claim that the sales will increase exceedingly.  To make the assertion more convincing, the arguer should provide further information about the survey and rule out other factors related to dropping sales.

qiaowenqianUID: 2116780

我个人认为开头可以写短一些。。
可以放在后面几段中引用。。
：）

JohnmaxWongUID: 2150536

有没漏掉一些重要的攻击点？