exp03 argument提纲总结帖(持续更新)^_^ FLY AW小组

exp03UID: 2158827

占位 以作总结用

exp03UID: 2158827

57The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
1.        调查样本不全面,只是对初次患病病人调查有效.该药可能会对病人有副作用或在病人体内产生抗药性.
2.        调查的数据不明确.读者不知道具体数据,无法知道疗效.
3.        数据误导,有75%的患者不使用该要不代表他们是潜在客户.a.有其他要与其竞争b.文中已说明是简单常规药物说明医生对该要评价不高不推荐使用.
总的来说,不能导出该药将会有很好的市场前景这个结论.

exp03UID: 2158827

97The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
1.        错误类比.将全国情况和本地区情况进行类比以得出须增加体育节目来提高收视率这一结论不合理.有可能本地区多数为妇女小孩老人,不喜好体育节目.
2.        错误类比.将w和k错误类比.也是观众情况不清的问题.
3.        没有证据表明观众增加会带来效益.
4.  k的数据不明确,2倍的含义不清.可能以前观众很少例如4%-->8%.

exp03UID: 2158827

180The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course."
1. 错误类比.将其他公司情况和本公司情况进行类比,有可能本公司多数员工都从事体力劳      动如家政公司,不需要进行大量的阅读训练.
2. 数据不能有效支持结论,有一两个学员取得很高成绩不能代表所有学院都能取得很大进步.
3.证据不足.不知道本公司的运营情况下不能说明500$对公司来说是一笔小数目,而且要让所有员工都参加培训可能会花很多钱.
4.是否全体员工都需要培训没说明,多数情况下不需要
5.错误地将员工工作效率和阅读速度进行类比
结论,让所有员工都参加阅读培训不能给公司带来很大效益.

exp03UID: 2158827

205The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."

1.        错误类比.B城情况和A城有可能不同,而作者只是单纯以破坏公物率来判断犯罪率是否下降是不全面的
2.        A城可能本来破坏公物就很少而其他犯罪率高所以需要增加警察数来降低犯罪率
所以安装某种灯来降低犯罪率是没有根据的
刚刚说我灌水...

exp03UID: 2158827

36The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
原方法不好 原因是 新方法调查的结果 推出 oc失效 推出 ic有效 推出 k小组得出的结论好
1.说明新方法的结果不可信
2.oc失效ic有效的结论条件不足
3.k小组的结论好的论据不足

1.containing so many unrelated people, people in the interview are not proper.
2.Dr. Field's conclusion can not be beaten until other inportant aspects of survey support the conclusion.
3.there are several  weaken points in the reseach of Dr. Karp

exp03UID: 2158827

111The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.
"A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented "Endure" manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always advertised its use of the "Endure" process, but the new study shows that the average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process."

前提：ds的作用于e类似，是e的升级版本
现状：ds得到消费者青睐
结论：e消失对ds有很大好处，e的存在是浪费钱

1.ds是否真的得到消费者青睐数据不明
   does ds really sell well in the market? other appearance also influnce the products selling other than color and sthlish.
2. e的消失不一定真能给ds带来好处
   the disappearate of e may not inrease the profits of ds.other company products may occupy the field of e

exp03UID: 2158827

168Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age.
减缓骨骼质量下降最好的方法是吃两倍量的维D和钙
对法国80老太太进行三年的调查得出结论
当然这些老太太还参加减肥计划
结果：老太太们比平均比率降低得低
The study may not get the final concluding
1.        the light weightlifting program may have more influence on reduce bone mass decreases than take more medicines.
2.        the sample of the study is not containing all situations.
a.        French old women may have better health conductions than others
b.        The 80 years old people may have less chance to decrease the bone mass than other ages
c.        The women who can afford nursing-home residents may have better living condition than others which cause the lower rate of hip fractures

exp03UID: 2158827

239The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."
W镇进行对年轻人晚间出门的控制降低了犯罪率，所以本镇要学他们
1.        arguer’s town may have much fewer youth crime than w, so need not control the time they are spending in public places as w doing
2.        none report shown crime in w not means none crime happen in the area
3.        no evidence shows that keeping young people at home late at night can protect minors from becoming victims of crime

exp03UID: 2158827

9The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
学生打分导致教师给学生高分导致学生不好找工作，所以这种制度不好要改
1.        there is no evidence show that professors assign higher grades to students because the bad facet of the procedure, on the other hand, the result may be caused by the better teaching effectiveness of classes.
2.        the comparing of two school’s students is unreasonable
a.        two schools’ students have different major parts
b.        the companies of the two areas may have different stuff needs
c.        the students’ expecting may be not at the same level
so we can not get the conclusion that the procedure is failing

exp03UID: 2158827

167A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective.
In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
1.        the result of the survey is not complete which does not show the wakened conditions of the volunteers on the third week. And no evidence show that the volunteers feel better after the study.
2.        there are other influence on the survey not relating folk remedy such as the medication and the controlled room
3.        the three weeks study on the insomnia is too short to get the final result