argument53 <米国有米第十次作业〉

blackswitchUID: 2110679

Argument53
Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提纲：
1 错误的因果关系   孩子的害羞 不一定与 M 有关系
2 不可靠的调查   样本只有25个，是否为随机样本也不可知
3 急于概括       想当然的认为这种害羞会持续下去


In the above argument, the author intends to convince me that increased melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy. To substantiate the argument, the author cites a research reports of 13 infants which showed that these infants who have distress to unfamiliar stimuli were more likely to have been conceived in early autumn. In addition, the author points out that their mother’s production of melatonin naturally increase in autumn. However, as it stands, the argument is hardly convincing due to the following critical fallacies.


The major flaw undermining the reasoning of the argument is that the arguer commits a fallacy of false causal relationship. The arguer simply assumes that there is a causal relationship between these infants’ shyness and melatonin. The mere fact that these infants have been conceived in early autumn offer little support to the assumption that their mothers’ production of melatonin influence these infants. It is entirely possible that these parents of these infants are also shy. In that case, It is maybe the gene contribute to these infants’ shyness. In addition, the arguer fails to inform us that these infants’ live environment. If these infants more contact with friends who are shy, they are more likely to be shy.  In fact, based on the fact that not all of the 25 infants are shy, we have reason to believe that this shyness is not nature born.

The second weak point of the argument is that the arguer makes a fallacy of dubious study. In the study, there are no signs of random sampling and complete investigation to guarantee the representation of the result of the argument. As stated in the argument, the result of the study is based on only “25” infants. Therefore, we have good reason doubt that the subjects cannot be representation of the result of the truth of the whole infants. For example, these infants com from the same region ,or they are kin. In either case, the result of study is unconvincing.

The last but not the least fallacy of the argument is that the arguer commits a hasty generalization in concluding that the increased melatonin before birth cause shyness and this shyness continues into later life. The arguer fails to offer any convincing reason to substantiate the melatonin results in these infants’ shyness, even if the fact being conceived in early autumn is responsible for these infants’ shyness. It is entirely possible not the melatonin but the weather condition of the(dry air) contributes to these infants’ distress to unfamiliar condition.  Further, assuming the melatonin caused this shyness, the arguer fails to substantiate that this shyness would continues into later life.

To sum up, the argument is hardly convincing due to the above fallacies. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should offer more information about the study and the reasons leading to these infants’ shyness.



[ 本帖最后由 blackswitch 于 2007-1-20 10:38 编辑 ]

ernest81888UID: 2247639

Argument53
Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提纲：
1 错误的因果关系   孩子的害羞 不一定与 M 有关系
2 不可靠的调查   样本只有25个，是否为随机样本也不可知
3 急于概括       想当然的认为这种害羞会持续下去


In the above argument, the author intends to convince me that increased melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy. To substantiate the argument, the author cites a research reports of 13 (25)infants which showed that these infants who have distress to unfamiliar stimuli were more likely to have been conceived in early autumn. In addition, the author points out that their mother’s production of melatonin naturally increase in autumn.(觉得这句写的简单了点) However, as it stands, the argument is hardly convincing due to the following critical fallacies.


The major flaw undermining the reasoning of the argument is that the arguer commits a fallacy of false causal relationship. The arguer simply assumes that there is a causal relationship between these infants’ shyness and melatonin. The mere fact that these infants have been conceived in early autumn offer little support to the assumption that their mothers’ production of melatonin influence these infants. It is entirely possible that these parents of these infants are also shy. In that case, It is maybe the gene contribute to these infants’ shyness. In addition, the arguer fails to inform us that these infants’ live environment. If these infants more contact with friends who are shy, they are more likely to be shy(这个...这个,说服力不是很强,INFANT,这个一般发生在3岁左右的时候吧).  In fact, based on the fact that not all of the 25 infants are shy, we have reason to believe that this shyness is not nature born.(结论不错,但感觉这句话太来的突然了,前面举那么多POSSIBLILITY,不该用这句话来结尾吧,亏了)

The second weak point of the argument is that the arguer makes a fallacy of dubious study. In the study, there are no signs of random sampling and complete investigation to guarantee the representation of the result of the argument. As stated in the argument, the result of the study is based on only “25” infants. Therefore, we have good reason doubt that the subjects cannot be representation of the result of the truth of the whole infants.(乱了点,干脆说,can not represent whole infants in general) For example, these infants com(e) from the same region ,or they are kin.(嘿嘿,这个道理不错啊,8过有点极端,呵呵,但是也可以) In either case, the result of study is unconvincing.

The last but not the least fallacy of the argument is that the arguer commits a hasty generalization in concluding that the increased melatonin before birth cause shyness and this shyness continues into later life.(句式比较单一,大家的通病) The arguer fails to offer any convincing reason to substantiate the melatonin(+is the olny reason that) results in these infants’ shyness, even if the fact being conceived in early autumn is responsible for these infants’ shyness. It is entirely possible not the melatonin but the weather condition of the(dry air) contributes to these infants’ distress to unfamiliar condition.  Further, assuming the melatonin caused this shyness, the arguer fails to substantiate that this shyness would continues into later life.

这段写的不错


To sum up, the argument is hardly convincing due to the above fallacies. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should offer more information about the study and the reasons leading to these infants’ shyness.

结尾简单了点啊,一般3个错误,用3句话写一下.
论证有理有据,文章结构清晰,缺点是句式比较单一,组织上再需要加强.加油了

[ 本帖最后由 ernest81888 于 2007-1-20 12:40 编辑 ]