argument20 【today is the day】第七次作业 by FreePeter

FreePeterUID: 2402482

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

写的时候有点脑残，居然忘了攻击Torseau可能是因为其他原因导致accidents下降，我之前还找过这篇文章的错误的，看来一定要把所有的错误都写下来多看看，否则一碰到写作的时候一紧张就忘了主攻击点了。

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
DATE: 2008-8-8 16:54:32

The editor suggests that the Balmer town council need to limit the number of moped and bicycle rentals to attain the 50 percent decrease in traffic accidents. To support this suggestion, the editor provides the fact that the neighboring island of Torseau succeeded in archive a lower number of accidents by applying similar limits. However, this argument is problematic in several respects, rendering it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the editor unfairly assumes that the residents on the Balmer Island mainly using rented moped and bicycle. However, it is entirely possible that the most residents have their own moped or bicycle, that is to say, only a few parts of the moped and bicycles on the street is by rent. In this case, reducing the number of mopeds and bicycles rented could have little influence on decrease the total number of those traffic tools on the streets. Also, maybe the number of these tools rented by the companies is only about 30 per day, which could make this limit useless.

Even I concede that the number of those traffic tools rented is the significant part in the whole number, the editor has not substantiate that there will be enough few moped and bicycles on the roads to archive the 50 percent decrease. The editor overlooks the possibility that a number of residents may purchase their own mopeds and bicycles after the limit is issued. Also, the limit may be not enough strict, perhaps the government need to limit the number of mopeds rented to 20 per day to attain the goal. All these conditions will make the measures fail to archive its goal.

Finally, the editor fails to consider the possible differences between Balmer Island and Torseau. For example, perhaps the residents in Torseau are much more interested in going out by traffic tools, after limiting the number of tools rented, they do not go out as often as before; while the number of pedestrians will increase largely after the limit in Balmer Island. In this case the effect of the same limit on Balmer Island may not be so significant. Moreover, Torseau may have much more traffic accidents before, which makes the measures so efficient. Without ruling out such possibilites, the editor cannot draw the conclusion that that the Balmer Island will attain the same consequence.

In sum, the editor has not convinced me that the number of accidents in Balmer Island will decrease so largely by limiting the number of rentals. To bolster the argument the editor must show more evidences which can prove that the number of mopeds and bicycles will significantly reduce after the measures. To better assess the suggestion, I would also need to know the traffic circumstances of Balmer Island and Torseau.

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