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A10.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

In this analysis, the editor fully embracs the recommendation that the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices to ensure both lower proces and an adequate supply of milk for consumers. To strengthen this recommendation, the editior points out that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. At the meantime, the editor also resons that the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased. Abeit this conlusion seems sound, it infested with flaws and drawbacks.

The major problem of this argument is that farmers might not receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, even though the price of milk has incresed from $1.50 to over $3.00. Perhaps,the price of other goods in the market have increased more than the price of milk and the revenue of the residents has increased. Beside, the price might only increase in the Excello Food Market, hence it can not reflect the price of milk at Batavia in general. Since the editor fails to provide any evidence about the situation of the whole market, his assumption that farmers receive excessive profits is not convincing.



Furthermore, the editor fails to consider the consequence of regulating the retail milk prices. It is possible that the cost of producing milk is increase. If the government force the prices of milk, the farmers might not profit from it or profit little from it. As a result, it might undermine the resource of the milk, since the farmer might not continue this kind of job. On the other hand, the increase of the milk price often reflects the increasing demand. Hence the regulaiton might lead the insufficient supply of milk. Without considering this possibility, the editor cannot give the recommendation convincingly.
In addition, there is only ratio but no figure of the report of the department of argriculture. Although the number of dairy farms is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago, the number is still not large, since the number was very small 10 years ago. It is possible that the number of dairy farms has increase, while the prodution of the single form is decreasing. As a result, the production of milk remains or even decreases. The editor feel to consider the root of
the cause.

As it stands, the argument is specious and not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptalbe the editor could have to rule out the market situation and all other possibility of the increasing price of milk. To better eveluate this conclusion, we need more information considering above-mentioned possibilities.