【kaleidoscope】小组第7次作业 Argument14 by Azoi

azoiUID: 2636348

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 436
TIME: 0:30:00
DATE: 2009/8/11

The author of the memo advocates that the small gardening company should expand the variety of vegetable seeds to boost its profits because there are evidences showing that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. However, this plausible assertion is basically unconvincing since the author has committed many illogical fallacies during his reasoning process.

To start with, the national survey the author cited doesn't have a sufficient support to the contention that local consumers have already change their plant growing habit. Firstly, the national survey may not be accurate in describing the local status quo. It is entirely possible that the respondents of the survey mainly come from some major cities of the country, which is largely differing from the population of this suburban town. There's much possibility that the residences of the town seldom go to supermarkets and mainly purchase their daily vegetables in local fairs. Therefore the author has committed the fallacy of a false analogy.

Secondly, the sold-out of the local gardening magazine Great Garden hardly contributes to the conclusion that the residences are willing to grow their own vegetables. Since the author fails to rule out other possibilities may lead to the same consequences. It's entirely possible that the locals are getting interested in garnishing their garden using some scenery plants, but not interested in growing vegetables. Or perhaps the magazine only published so small a quantity that it could be easily sold out in newspaper stands. In short, without taking other factors that may influence the selling of the magazine, such assumption would be absolutely unwarranted.

The last but not the least, even granted that the local residences have got interested in growing vegetables in their garden, the idea of increasing the company's profits by expanding the variety of vegetable is still specious. It's highly possible that the locals are only fond of several kinds of seed, storing too many different kinds of seeds could end up in a increased storing fee. Since the profits of a company is correlated with both its cost and its income, since a surge of the income is not guaranteed, the reckless decision of storing many different kinds of seeds could severely impact the profits of the company .

In sum, if the author wants to make his propose more compelling, he should firstly conduct a comprehensive survey over the local residences. On condition that the result turns out that it is true for the locals getting interested in growing their own vegetables, can the author be really confident about his propose of expanding the variety of the vegetable seeds.

rjyuuUID: 2591508