argument45[Jet小组第三次作业]

huangli711UID: 2451421

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal."Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


Apparently, the conclusion—that the decline in arctic deer population is because of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea--of this argument seems to be reasonable, by the expression that arctic deer live in the limited place and recent global warming, which possibly lead to sea ice to melt in the same place. However, the argument mistakenly drew the conclusion from the inappropriate reasons and illogical explaining.

Firstly, the inappropriate reason could lead to this unreasonable conclusion. In this argument, the author assured that from local hunter, the deer populations are declining. That is only enough to illustrate that in that place where arctic deer once lived, the deer population is smaller than some years before, but unlike the plans, deer could move, as mentioned in the passage, their habitat is moving over ice from island to island in search of suitable food during the course of a year. No other evidence could claim the deer population is declining too in other places, which means it might be possible that the number is increasing in the whole world, but for other reasons the deer stated someplace else but where they used to live.

Secondly, the author is confused by the relationship between the reports and recent global warming trends, which happened in the same time. Though the global warming trends is coincide with this report, but for its self, this trends is hypotheses, even if the sea ice melted sometimes, this could be considered as common natural phenomenon, because the air temperature is changing along the year. Thus the argument is failure to explain that the raising temperature has caused the melting of sea ice. If the deer herbs have moved far away enough to the limited time when they have to come back, w also could say they lose their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, but that is beyond of the reason of global warming. Even put it as a truth, the changing temperature might also result the food grass cannot live, and which could give the same end—the declination of arctic deer. So the illogical explaining cannot make one safe conclusion as the author made in the argument.

Besides that, the report of declining of deer population from local hunter might also be filled with questions. Both the number of responses and the authenticity of each response, since the hunter might hold some special purpose and be eager to suggest local government to make some decision, which would lead to high profit that is limited by the countable number of deer and limited time to hunt.

To strengthen this argument, the author should make a considered survey from suitable person, and make sure the population of arctic deer is really declined in the whole word. Additional factor, but not the least, the true reason, why the declination happened, the food or the way they are searching food.      

[ 本帖最后由 huangli711 于 2008-2-6 08:35 编辑 ]