argument42 jingjing(kito)

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TOPIC：ARGUMENT 42 - The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."

Outline:
1 作者错误的假定更多的外国人的到来是因为Bellegea生态旅游的推广。可能坐飞机来的人多，而坐汽车或火车来的人少了，也可能是来此换机，或是因为商业目的，不一定是旅游。
2 作者错误的把时间上先后发生的两件事认为有因果联系。人均收入的增长不一定是因为生态旅游，可能是因为政府采取了吸引外商的优惠政策，或者生活和工作环境得到改善，人们积极性提高。
3 错误类比，作者没有考虑两个国家不同的经济状况和地理因素，况且相同的广告运动在B成功并代表在P也能成功。还有the director未必了解P的环境情况，未必是最好的候选人。

In this argument, the economic minister of the country of Paraterra concludes that in order to provide more revenue for the population of Paraterra and preserve their natural environment, they should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as the consultant for promoting their ecotourism. The author also cites the fact that since the nearby country Bellegea began an advertising campaign to enhance ecotourism, both foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport and the average income increased. Close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the argument.

First of all, the author unjustifiably assumes that the increased number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airports is attributable to the advertising campaign which was supposed to promote the ecotourism. However, the dubious assumptions beg two questions: First, is the fact that foreign visitors who arrived at its main airports increased a good indication of the total amount of tourists to Bellegea increased? Certainly not. It is highly possible that the majority of tourists coming to Bellegea by train or by bus decreased. As a result, the total number of tourist declined. Second, are these people coming to Bellegea only for tourism? Without informing us the purpose and identities of the foreign visitors, we have sufficient reasons to believe that the increased foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's airports are coming for their business or for changing other flights.

Secondly, the author commits the fallacy of "after this, therefore, because of these", which assumes that the increased per capita income has been caused by the advertising campaign to promote ecotourism, just because the second event follows the first. The causal claim based on the correlation is premature unless the author can rule out other facts. Perhaps, the government of Bellegea carried out a series of policies to attract foreign enterprises. They invested Bellegea's business and offered many new jobs, consequently, the jobless rate decreased and the average income ascends. Or perhaps the living and working environment were improved significantly--there are more parks for people resting and exercising. The better environment enhanced people's activity for living and working and therefore the average salary was increased. Thus, without considering and ruling out these and other possible scenarios, the author cannot persuade me that the increased average revenue of Bellegea's residents is resulted from the ecotourism.

Finally, the author commits a false analogy that the advertising campaign in Bellegea will have the same function on Paraterra. The analogy depends on the assumption that all the conditions that affect the citizens' revenue and environment in both countries are similar. However, it is entirely possible that the development of economic in Bellegea is quicker than Paraterra and the unique geological features and beautiful scenes in Bellegea naturally become the precious resources for exploiting ecotourism. This would explain why the average income of residents in Bellegea increased and therefore why its environment can be preserved. Moreover, the analogy also depends on the assumption that the director of Bellegea will contribute to the advertising campaign in Paraterra as well as he did in Bellegea. The author fails to consider many factors that influence his contributions. Perhaps he was familiar with the environment of Bellegea but knew little about Paraterra, or perhaps the government of Bellegea can offer him a higher salary than Paraterra. Without information about the ability of the director, the author cannot convince me that he would be the best candidate for the advertising campaign in Paraterra.

In sum, this argument is unreasonable in several aspects. To bolster it the author should provide better evidence that it is the ecotourism, not other factors, that attracts more foreign visitors arriving to Bellegea and increase the per capita income. To better assess the argument the author should compare the economic and geologic elements of the two countries at least to substantiate that the advertising campaign for promoting the ecotourism in Bellegea would bring the same effect in Paraterra.

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