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59The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
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提纲:1,仅凭6次情况不能武断的认为黑子运动导致流感。
2,医学纪录太模糊,不能有效支持结论。
3,可能有其他原因导致流感。
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This argument, in general, includes three aspects that we have good reasons to question.
First, the argument fails to establish a casual relationship between the sunspot activity and worldwide flu epidemics. In addition, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing. The arguer also does not consider and rule out other possible explanations. All these flaws make it unpersuasive as it stands and I will discuss each of them in turn.第一段写的可以
To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the heavy sunspot activity is responsible for these worldwide flu epidemics. However, this is not necessarily the case. While it is true that six worst worldwide flu epidemics broke out in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 when heavy sunspot activities happened, the author provides no evidence that heavy sunspot activities occurred only in these six years. It is entirely possible that heavy sunspot activities appeared in other certain years when there was no flu epidemic at all. Again, it is also possible that human beings suffered from worldwide flu epidemics when there was no sunspot activity. In either event, the author could not justifiably rely on the mere fact that flu epidemics was (were)coincident with sunspot activities to assume that the heavy sunspot activity gives rise to worldwide flu epidemics.
Furthermore, granted that the heavy sunspot activity can lead to worldwide flu epidemics, the author unfairly assumes that the heavy sunspot activity is the only factor that can exert influence on the result. The medical records presented here are too vague to be informative. (这句放在这里也挺恰当,不过个人觉得每段首句最好摆出致命病症,不妨把这句的位置做作调换,你觉得呢?) Nothing is mentioned about where these six horrible worldwide flu epidemics occurred and what about the weather conditions and life(living) quality there. Perhaps the environmental condition is the main factor that contributes to the result. And it is equally possible that the occurrence of flu epidemics largely depends on the life quality-that is, how well people lead their life and how well the medical conditions are. Lacking such specific information, the medical records accomplish nothing to the assumption that worldwide flu epidemics solely resulted from the sunspot activity.
Last but not least, the author also fails to take into account other possible alternatives which may bring on the happening of flu epidemics. For instance, were there any sudden changes on weather circumstance that may affect people's health and thus lead(leading) to flu? Were there any severe pollution events that may result in people debilitated by certain related virus? Were there any wars in which bacterium or virus were used as a weapon for victory and then brought about flu? Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the author's suggestion that people should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun.
In summary, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make it more convincing, the author should provide more detailed information concerning the medical records, such as where these flu epidemics happened and what about people's life there. The more concrete evidence provided, the more reliable it is.
认真看完了你的文章,觉得总体不错,用词和用句都较为得体,结构也不错。除了几处笔误还需要再注意一下。 |
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