argument111 jingjing（kito小组）临考互拍！^_^

jingjingtousUID: 2164820

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 111 - The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.

"A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented "Endure" manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always advertised its use of the "Endure" process, but the new study shows that the average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process."

提纲：
1 顾客买袜子的频率与袜子的使用寿命无关。
2 第二个调查的样本不具有代表性。
3 关于利润应该考虑多方面因素。


Prior to accepting the vice president's recommendation that Dura-Sock company should cease its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process, I find that after a close scrutiny, all the evidence the vice president quotes are statistically unsubstantiated.

To begin with, the vice president unfairly assumes that the patented "Endure" manufacturing process of is a waste of money in that the new study shows that customers buy new Dura-Socks every three months. However, the frequency of the purchase of their customers has no relation to the canceling of the patented manufacturing process. It is highly possible that the customers broke their socks or dyed them with clothes with different colors and as a consequence, they need a new one. Or perhaps only one pair of sock cannot meet for their demands in consideration of their habits of exercising and sports and they need several pairs of socks for changing. If that would be the case, it obvious serves to undermine the conclusion make by the vice president. Therefore, the frequency of sock purchase does not indicate that consumers care less about the longevity of the socks.

In addition, the reliability of the survey which implies that Dura-Sock customers in the northeastern United States cities are inclined to the stylish appearance and availability of the colors is open to doubt. It is flawed in two aspects as follow. First, we should suspect the representation of the survey's sample. Is the number of customers in the northeastern United States cities sufficient enough to represent the propensity of all the customers in the country or maybe around the world? Of course not. And the second, the reliability of the responses made by them is completely unwarranted, we are not ensure whether they express their fortheright opinions when they are being investigated. Moreover, the vice president provides no evidence that those customers do not really care about the quality of the socks when they buy them. Therefore, the vice president' conclusion is weakened based on such a dubious survey.

Finally, the vice president unreasonably asserts that they would increase the profits by discontinuing the patented manufacturing process. Common sense informs us without the guarantee of the high quality, the socks cannot attract more customers to buy it even though it has fashionable styles or diverse colors. Furthermore, profit is a factor of not only costs but also revenues, though the canceling of the patented manufacturing process might reduce the costs of producing, it would significantly lead to the declination of its price, consequently, the amount of money generated from the discontinuing of the process would not compensate the decrease of the income-let alone about the detrimental impact on the reputation of the company. Therefore, the vice president's conclusion is totally unconvincing.

In sum, the argument is statistically unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it, the vice president should confirm the reliability of the surveys and ensure that the discontinuing of the patented process would bring about more profits to Dura-Sock Inc.

kito9695UID: 209685

jingjingtous加油~~表偷懒~~~偶走了~~

智恩UID: 2160717

提纲：
1 顾客买袜子的频率与袜子的使用寿命无关。
2 第二个调查的样本不具有代表性。
3 关于利润应该考虑多方面因素。


Prior to accepting the vice president's recommendation that Dura-Sock company should cease its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process, I find that after a close scrutiny, all the evidence the vice president quotes are statistically unsubstantiated.

To begin with, the vice president unfairly assumes that the patented "Endure" manufacturing process of is a waste of money in that the new study shows that customers buy new Dura-Socks every three months. However, the frequency of the purchase of their customers has no relation to the canceling of the patented manufacturing process. It is highly possible that the customers broke their socks or dyed them with clothes with different colors and as a consequence, they need a new one. Or perhaps only one pair of sock cannot meet for their demands in consideration of their habits of exercising and sports and they need several pairs of socks for changing. If that would be the case, it obvious serves to undermine the conclusion make【made】 by the vice president. Therefore, the frequency of sock purchase does not indicate that consumers care less about the longevity of the socks.

In addition, the reliability of the survey which implies that Dura-Sock customers in the northeastern United States cities are inclined to the stylish appearance and availability of the colors is open to doubt. It is flawed in two aspects as follow. First, we should suspect the representation【representative】 of the survey's sample. Is the number of customers in the northeastern United States cities sufficient enough to represent the propensity of all the customers in the country or maybe around the world? Of course not. And【 the是不是不用加the】 second, the reliability of the responses made by them is completely unwarranted, we are not ensure whether they express their fortheright opinions when they are being investigated【呵呵，2个动词了，可不可不以这样说，when they accept the investigation】. Moreover, the vice president provides no evidence that those customers do not really care about the quality of the socks when they buy them. Therefore, the vice president' conclusion is weakened based on such a dubious survey.

Finally, the vice president unreasonably asserts that they would increase the profits by discontinuing the patented manufacturing process. Common sense informs us without the guarantee of the high quality, the socks cannot attract more customers to buy it even though it has fashionable styles or diverse colors. Furthermore, profit is a factor of not only costs but also revenues,【我觉得可以这样说，profit refers to not only costs but also revenue】 though the canceling of the patented manufacturing process might reduce the costs of producing, it would significantly lead to the declination of its price, consequently, the amount of money generated from the discontinuing of the process would not compensate the decrease of the income-let alone about the detrimental impact on the reputation of the company. Therefore, the vice president's conclusion is totally unconvincing.

In sum, the argument is statistically unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it, the vice president should confirm the reliability of the surveys and ensure that the discontinuing of the patented process would bring about more profits to Dura-Sock Inc.

总的来说没啥大问题了，限时能写这么多，真的值得骄傲，我限时只能写400字左右，这篇我给5.5，还有17天了，加油哈