argument59 晚来的同主题第二期，首次加入，留链必回！！

skywithstarsUID: 155027

Argument 59 flu epidemics, sunspot activity
[题目]
59The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."

1.the available record不够完全。首先，record300年的相对于整个人类的传染病史可能不够长，仅仅6次的流感记录也可能不能说明问题。第二，流感300年中仅大爆发了6次，但并不意味着太阳黑子活动只有这6次，其他黑子爆发时有流感出现么？第三，这六年中其他传染病有没有大爆发？有的话sunspot activity 与flu就没有直接联系。
2.同时发生不等于有因果联系，流感的爆发可能因为其他原因，如医疗条件不好，全球性的战争或饥荒，等等
3.即便flu epidemics与sunspot activity 间有联系，并不等于是由于人体接受太阳能量过多则容易导致流感，也可能sunspot activity引发全球气候变化等（如气温，雨水等）造成了流感多发。长时间晒太阳会使人容易感冒，论者没有为此提供任何资料。 没有本质原因的说明。



While this argument appears to indicate a causal relationship between worldwide flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity, the author fails to consider the essential factor that contributes to the flu. More issues should be taken into consideration before making a final recommendation.

A threshold problem of this argument involves the reliability of the record. First of all, compared with the history of human epidemics, 300 years may not be a particularly long time frame, and the only 6 worldwide flu epidemics might not be sufficient to establish a causal relationship between these events. Secondly, the author provides no evidence that there were only 6 years with heavy sunspot activity during the past 300 years. If there was any other year with heavy sunspot activity, but without worldwide flu epidemics, we cannot take the author’s recommendation seriously. Thirdly, it is equally possible that not only flu, but many other epidemics also occur simultaneously worldwide. It is a pity that the author does not provide statistics of other epidemics in the six years, thus failing to establish a direct causal relationship between sunspot activity and the flu epidemics.  Problems like these render the record an unconvincing one.

Another fallacy with this argument is that the mere fact that heavy sunspot activity coincided with worldwide flu epidemics does not necessarily prove a causal relationship. Those six years might be years when World War broke out, or the world was experiencing a worldwide famine and the medical conditions were not so good. In addition, the transformation of social regime might also be a contributing factor, when various epidemics might occur due to the social chaos. Without ruling out alternative reasons for the worldwide flu epidemics, we cannot confidently come to the conclusion that heavy sunspot activity is the only cause of the flu epidemics.

Even if I were to concede that there was a causal relationship between the two events, this argument supplies no essential evidence to substantiate that long exposure to the Sun will be conductive to the flu. After all, more sun energy was not the only thing that heavy sunspot activity brought to the earth. For example, a big change might occur in the global climate at the same time. An abnormal increase in temperature in summer and decrease in winter, or an unusual drought or flood, might make the spread of virus more easily. If so, long exposure to the Sun may have nothing to do with the occurrence of the flu, thus making the author’s recommendation insignificant.

In conclusion, both the reliability of the record and the conclusion drawn from the record are unwarranted. In order to better substantiate the recommendation, the author should provide more complete and detailed analysis of the relationship between the sunspot activity and the flu epidemics.

littleheavenUID: 191407

While this argument appears to indicate a causal relationship between worldwide flu epidemics and heavy sunspot activity, the author fails to consider the essential factor（不知道用复数是不是更好？） that contributes to the flu. More issues should be taken into consideration before making a final recommendation.

A threshold problem of this argument involves the reliability of the record. First of all, compared with the history of human epidemics, 300 years may not be a particularly long time frame, and the only 6 worldwide flu epidemics might not be sufficient to establish a causal relationship between these events. Secondly, the author provides no evidence that there were only 6 years with heavy sunspot activity during the past 300 years. If there was any other year with heavy sunspot activity, but without worldwide flu epidemics, we cannot take the author’s recommendation seriously. Thirdly, it is equally possible that not only flu, but many other epidemics also occur simultaneously worldwide. It is a pity that the author does not provide statistics of other epidemics in the six years, thus failing to establish a direct causal relationship between sunspot activity and the flu epidemics.（为什么不知道其他epidemics就不能断定sunspot activity 引起 the flu epidemics呢？最后能解释清楚，这样才能达到imong所说的“具体”的要求吧：））  Problems like these render the record an unconvincing one.（直接用render the records unconvincing就可以了吧？）

Another fallacy with this argument is that the mere fact that heavy sunspot activity coincided with worldwide flu epidemics does not necessarily prove a causal relationship. Those six years might be years when World War broke out, or the world was experiencing a worldwide famine and the medical conditions were not so good.(感觉医疗条件不光是在这6年有问题，最好不要和战争，饥荒一起说。) In addition, the transformation of social regime might also be a contributing factor, when various epidemics might occur due to the social chaos.（强！这个理由都想的出来，呵呵） Without ruling out alternative reasons for the worldwide flu epidemics, we cannot confidently come to the conclusion that heavy sunspot activity is the only cause of the flu epidemics.

Even if I were to concede that there was a causal relationship between the two events, this argument supplies no essential evidence to substantiate that long exposure to the Sun will be conductive to the flu. After all, more sun energy was not the only thing that heavy sunspot activity brought to the earth. For example, a big change might occur in the global climate at the same time. An abnormal increase in temperature in summer and decrease in winter, or an unusual drought or flood, might make the spread of virus more easily. （这个问题就说的很具体了，再加上thus cause wide flu epidemics.应该更圆满吧？）If so, long exposure to the Sun may have nothing to do with the occurrence of the flu, thus making the author’s recommendation insignificant.

In conclusion, both the reliability of the record and the conclusion drawn from the record are unwarranted. In order to better substantiate the recommendation, the author should provide more complete and detailed analysis of the relationship between the sunspot activity and the flu epidemics.
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