argument117 调查和利润方面的逻辑错误！

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1１7 The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

最近一次调查超过70％的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升，我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势，在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革，我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门。
1、调查的代表性，样本量及调查部门的权威性问题。
2、没有必要所有valu－mart商店都增加家庭办公机器，各个商店情况不一样。
3、利润问题。
In the argument, the manager claims that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of all stores. To support the conclusion, the manager cites that a recent survey about work home increase than before and the evidence that the work-at-home become trend. However, in my views, the argument seems unwarranted as it stands because some logic false will be disclosed under the close scrutiny.

In the first place, the manager claims that over 70 percent of the respondents reflect the survey of taking more work home from the workplace than before. However, the manager fails to provide specific numbers of the sample about the survey. Perhaps, the samples are not enough to represent the true circumstance. In addition, we have no information whether respondents are representative or not. Finally, it is not sure whether survey department is authority or not. In a word, without aforementioned information, the survey cannot convince us, let alone the conclusion.

In the second place, even if the survey is true, it is not necessarily demanded that all Valu-Mart stores should increase the stock of home office machines just in that the manager fails to provide the detailed information about various stores. Perhaps, the stores located near the school where many pupils cannot afford the price of these machines are selled poor. Maybe, large printers, copy machines, paper shredders and fax machines are selled well in some stores because some companies are in great need of them, in this sense, it appears unwise to turn large to small machines. Consequently, unless the manager provides the detailed information of various stores, we cannot accept the measure changing into small machines.

Finally, even if the two points are true, it does not guaranteed that with these changes, office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores. Common sense tells me that when it comes to profit, there are two points involving revenue and cost should be considerated. On one hand, the cost of these small machines are expensive since many new technology are applied to them, therefore the sail cost add accordingly. On the other hand, we have no idea about the revenue after the stores change into selling small machines. In addition, even if the profit increases, it is not guaranteed to become the most profitable in all stores. In a word, it is hasty for the manager to draw the conclusion.

To sum up, based what has discussed above, it is more clear that the conclusion is unreasonable. To make it more believable, the manager should provide more information about the survey and various stores, as well as the revenue and cost after all stores adopt the change.