argument147 高频 欢迎互拍

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147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past
two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales
trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what
features they thought were most important in a video game. According to
the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which
require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced
several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at
people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.
It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to
increase dramatically in the next few months."

尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游
戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果，玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的，具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10－25岁的
人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，10－25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。
a. sruvey 调查陈述不足, 不可信,
c. survey可能不是针对10-25岁人的,即时是10-25岁的人 购买力问题
d. 广告是否有效, 是什么因素影响了销售,盗版,其他公司的竞争
In this editorial, the author asserts that the sales of Whirlwind Video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this assertion the author cites a survey for video-game players about the most favorite feature in video games, which is lifelike graphics. And the author also refers that Whirlwind has just put several such games to fore stage by extensive advertising directed at 10 to 25 years old people who are most likely to play video games. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the assertion.

First of all, the credibility of the survey cited by the author is open to doubt.  In this editorial, no detailed statistics are presented to make clear that how many players are involved in the survey, what the other preferred features in the survey are, and whether the graphic factor is prominently chose by most of the players. Without answering these questions, the survey may be possibly promoted in a small quantity of some certain type players which can not depute the intention of general video game players, and other factors such as scenario designing and sound effect may weaken the efficiency of lifelike graphics in sales of video games.

Even assuming the survey is convinced for indicating the fondest feature of the video game players, it is no adequate evidence that the vivid video games will be broadly accepted by the 10 to 25 years old people. The interest of the youth may be different from the players in other ages. And as the argument referred, such vivid video games require the most up-to date computers to function. Since young people can not afford the expensive outlay to change or update their computer, the inconsistent situation that the video games, in one hand, are favored by players, while in other hand are not well salable in the market is easy to imagine.

Last but not the least, the editorial indicates that the advertising campaign will contribute to the salability of video games in the next few months. But no dependency support that strategy will directly lead to a reverse of video-game sales. Perhaps, some other alternative factors such us pirate of game-software might badly undermine the game sales. And it is even possible that Whirlwind render similar advertising campaign to introduce video games over the past two years, thus, the sales of video games might not be affected by advertising. Either of the cases foregoing will make the author's conclusion ill-convinced and poorly grounded.

In summing, the author's assertion is untenable and unwarranted. To convince me that the video-game sales will be reversed, the author should prove the authority of the survey and the survey's conclusion is fit for the general players including 10-25 years age-group. The author should also justify the principal status of lifelike graphic feature which render the game popular, ruling out other alternative possibilities result in the decline of sales. To assess the assertion, I need to know more detailed and adequate statistics of the survey, and I need to know the internal reasoning of the sales problem.

[ 本帖最后由 staralways 于 2006-2-26 19:23 编辑 ]