argument6 限时，可字数太少了

gxw2008UID: 2134570

6 TOPIC: The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."


In this argument, the author provides various facts to demonstrate that the C Note--a proposed jazz club--would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. However, these facts are not well reasoned and have some fatal flaws discussed as follows.

On the first place, the mere fact that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away does not necessarily mean that the C Note will dominate the local market. Maybe the club 65 miles away has several merits such as the low price, wonderful service, high reputation, and so forth, which attracts not only local customers but also customers far away. It is also possible that people have already been used to driving 65 miles to meet their old friends there and enjoying their favorite jazz music, so they would not choose the near new club. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author fails to convince us that the C Note will have the local market all to itself, let alone making tremendous profits.

Secondly, the contention that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe is not defendable. On the one hand, the author fails to show that the 100000 people who attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer hold a large ratio of the whole population and thus can be representative of the inhabitants. What's more, maybe most of these people came from other parts or just lookers-on instead of the typical jazz fans as the author mentioned. On the other hand, it is very possible that those well-know jazz musicians choose to live in Monroe not because the popularity of jazz in Monroe but because the beautiful landscape and the peaceful lives there. If any is the case, the author's conclusion would be undermined.

Another major problem with this argument is the study the author cited. While the typical jazz fans nationwide spend close to $1000 per year, it is perhaps not the case in the Monroe. Even if the local situation corresponds to the result of the nationwide study, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, the money would probably be spent on the records, jazz music tickets rather than on the club. Unless the author demonstrate the inhabitants in the Monroe would spend money in joining the C Note, we cannot believe that the C Note cannot but make money.