Argument147 欢迎拍砖，留链互拍

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argument147

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Argument 147
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1）调查不具有说服力
2）即使调查可信，画质不是玩家考虑的唯一因素。还有其他因素的影响，比如故事情节，人物造型，游戏的定价。此外，最新款电脑的硬件要求，也会限制购买。
3）即使画质为唯一因素，广告不一定能提高销量。首先，10-25的群体是否为最主要人群；其次，广告的质量，是否具有吸引力，还有同行业的竞争是否影响了销量。

In the argument, the arguer cites several evidences to support the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind will increase dramatically in the next few months. However, after careful examination it could be found that the statement is not cogent and have several critical flaws as follow.

To begin with, the survey is too vague to be persuasive. The arguer gives nothing evidence about whether the respondents constitute a sufficiently large enough sample. Perhaps there are 1,000,000 video players in this country, but only 50 are investigated. In addition, are those respondents chosen randomly as to be representative of the overall video players? If they are only limited to a certain city or a geographical region, the result of the survey will be unconvincing. Without ruling out those possibilities, the arguer cannot convince me that the result of the survey is valid.

Even assuming that the result of survey is reliable, the arguer unfairly assumes that the feature of lifelike graphic is the only one factor that appeals the video players. However, this is not necessarily the case. There are many other factors that video player may consider to determine whether to buy the game, such as the plot and the character of the game. For example, if the plot of game is not intriguing and the characters are not designed carefully, which decrease the whole quality of the game, the video player may choose other games with a higher whole quality. Besides, the hardware requirement is another factor that may affect the player’s purchase. As the games of lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computer, however, there may be only a very small proportion of the video players own that computer, and for the most players their computers are not advanced enough to run that game. Moreover, it is impossible for those people to buy a most up-to-date computer that might cost a large amount of money just in order to play the lifelike graphic games.

Further given that the graphics is the only factor influencing the choice of video players, the advertising campaign cannot necessarily dramatically increase the sales of whirlwind video games. While the advertising campaign is directed at the ago group between 10 and 25, the arguer gives no information to support that people belonging to that age group most likely to play the games. Most of the people between 10-25 are students, who are busy at their courses and work as while as have to prepare for many tests, and they may have little time to play the video games. Furthermore, even assuming that this age group is the main customer group of the games, the success of the advertising campaign is also influenced by many other factors, such as the quality and attractiveness of the advertisement itself, the market strategy of competing company. For example, if the advertisement of whirlwind lacks any attractiveness and originality, while the competing company has a much more attractive market strategy, such as original advertisement, appealing promotion and economical price, then most of the video players possibly attracted to buy the products of other company and sales of whirlwind video games cannot increase obviously.

In conclusion, the statement is not persuasive as it stands. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer must provide more detailed information concerning the validity of the survey. To dramatically increase its sales, the arguer should consider other influencing factors and design relevant strategy.

[ 本帖最后由 tina715 于 2006-4-10 17:22 编辑 ]