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发表于 2006-7-28 23:39:52
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
同样写于失眠的第二天……梦游一样的文章,见谅
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 482 TIME: 0:40:04 DATE: 2006-7-28
In this argument, the author concluded that the main reason of the citizens’ fit problem is the decline in economy. To suggest his conclusion, the author brought change of the proportion of citizens who are fit enough; in addition, he also used the phenomenon that the highest fitness level coincident with highest ownership level of computer to conform his conclusion. At first glance, this text maybe somewhat reasonable, but with careful analysis, we could found it suffered from several logical flaws and discussed as follows.
The main reason of this argument is that the author tried to use the fitness level’s difference between now and twenty years ago to prove that the number of fit citizens has declined. And this point may have several drawbacks. First, we just have known the proportion of fit citizens is on half twenty years age and one quarter at present but we do not know the real number of them. It is very possible that the population of Corpora (C) have a drastic increasing during the pasted twenty years, so the one quarter nowadays maybe overweight than one half 20 years ago if the population have doubled.
Secondly, the author just mentioned the standards for adequate physical fitness (SAPF) is defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness, but what we do not know is that whether these standards have got any changes during the 20 years. As we all know, with the pollution and increasing number of people lived in city, it is very possible for people nowadays own lower worse body conditions than ever before, so maybe the standards defined 20 years ago is not fit to people who live in city nowadays.
Another significant problems of this text is that the author treat the cooperation of highest fitness level with highest ownership level of computer to assume the owning of computer is not responsible for declining of physical fit. The author just mentioned in some regions have such phenomenon but we do not know the states of all the regions and average situation. And we whether all the computers are belonging to people own but not some corporations such as companies, net bars. It is dangerous to make any conclusions if all these possible factors can not be involved.
Last but not least, the author have ignored all other possible reasons but just blamed on the decline of economy for the decline of citizens’ fitness. As common sense told us, a lot of factors could ruin human bodies’ fitness such as pressure resulted from increasing competing or lacking of sufficient rest. It is not safe no make assumption just based on author’s own subjective imagine.
All in all, the author failed to suggest his conclusion with such dubious evidence and unfounded, even subjective assumption. If he could bring more evidence and do some surveys, it will make his conclusion more logical acceptable. |
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