Argument48 『越洋农场第九次作业』By Alfred

alfred0516UID: 2214165

TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 480          TIME: 上午 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-7-30




The arguer asserted that it is the economic decline that leads to the decline of fitness levels, and that the fitness levels will improve when the economy does. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the fact that in this year, the expenditures on fitness-related products and services is unusually low. The argument suffers from a lot of logic flaws and is therefore unconvincing.
（选择性样本错误）
On the one hand, it has a fallacy of selective sample. In proving that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit, the arguer only selects those regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are highest; therefore, a lot of computer users are excluded from the survey. It is entirely possible that just because of the high computer ownership in sample region, people there are not so interest in computer as other regions where computer ownership is not so high, and so they probably like going out and do fitness. Therefore, only after all the computer users are included in the survey, can it be proved that using computers have nothing to do with fitness decline.
（经济下降和健康程度不一定存在因果关系）
On the other hand, the arguer fails to establish any causal relationship between economic decline and people's fitness degrade.  Low expenditures on fitness-related products and services doesn’t mean that the overall economic level of Corpora is decline. It is quite possible that auto industry or textile industry is the supporting industry in this country, and the economy is booming year by year. Without showing the fraction of revenue fitness-related products and services taken in the overall GDP of the country, it is too hastily to say that it is because of the decline of the sales on fitness-related products and services that has caused the economic decline.
（暗含假设错误：不一定经济提高了人们就会去买fitness-related products and services.）
In addition, the arguer's conclusion is based on an unconvincing assumption. The arguer groundlessly considers that if the economy is proved, people of this country will surely buy fitness-related products and services.  The will of purchasing is decided by a lot of factors, like price level, quality, income, etc.  However, the arguer doesn't give us any information to prove it.

（缩窄了fitness的定义; fitness 不一定要器具的，还可以跑步，体操，太极拳等等）
What's more, the arguer narrows the definition of fitness. The arguer mistakenly believes that fitness could only be done with fitness-related products and services. However, it is not the case. It is entirely possible that most of the people in Corpora prefer the fitness without tools like jogging, running, dancing. So, without ruling out this possibility, and without correctly recognizing the scope of fitness, how could the arguer make the conclusion?

To sum up, the argument is logically unsound. To strengthen it, the arguer must show more information to prove that using computer could not lead to fit decrease. To better evaluate the argument, the arguer has to have a full understand of the scope of "fitness". And particularly, more information has to be shown that there is some causal relationship between the economic decline and fitness degrade.

[ 本帖最后由 alfred0516 于 2006-7-30 18:32 编辑 ]

geniegoUID: 201395

The arguer asserted that it is the economic decline that leads to the decline of fitness levels, and that[可以省掉] the fitness levels will improve when the economy does. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the fact that in this year, the expenditures on fitness-related products and services is unusually low. The argument suffers from a lot of logic flaws and is therefore unconvincing.[简洁的总结]
（选择性样本错误）
On the one hand, it has a fallacy of selective sample.[简洁有力的说法] In proving that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit, the arguer only selects those regions of Corpora [作者在statement里面没有说只是在C这个地方做的调查，如果是这样，不会得出highest的结论]where levels of computer ownership are highest; therefore, a lot of computer users are excluded from the survey.[所以这句也不成立了] It is entirely possible that just because of the high computer ownership in sample region, people there are not so interest in computer as other regions where computer ownership is not so high, and so they probably like going out and do fitness.[这里的细节的论述，不够符合逻辑，或者你应该把你的原因陈述的更清楚，否则很难理解] Therefore, only after all the computer users are included in the survey, can it be proved that using computers have nothing to do with fitness decline.
（经济下降和健康程度不一定存在因果关系）
[这一段的论述，不够深入，有很多的原因可以指出，比如，这个survey没能提供sample样本的大小，以及调查的具体地点，甚至调查人群的性比，年龄比例等等这些可以证明这个survey具有代表性，总的来说你这一段写的不够成功，而且就错误的严重性来说这个不应该排第一个]
On the other hand, the arguer fails to establish any causal relationship between economic decline and people's fitness degrade.  Low expenditures on fitness-related products and services doesn’t mean that the overall economic level of Corpora is decline. It is quite possible [这里不用这么不肯定，因为常理上来说应该是这样的]that auto industry or textile industry is the supporting industry in this country, and the economy is booming year by year.Without showing the fraction of revenue[加of] fitness-related products and services taken in the overall GDP of the country, it is too hastily[用形容词hasty] to say that it is because of the decline of the sales on fitness-related products and services that has caused the economic decline.[很闪光的句子，除了后半句有一点点罗嗦还有一点语法小错，without用的很好]
（暗含假设错误：不一定经济提高了人们就会去买fitness-related products and services.）
[这一段我存在疑惑，我认为从原来的statement，经济水平的下降，好像是一个前提，虽然他出现在很后面，因为他并不是fitness消费品消费量减少的结果，反而更像是原因，所以希望可以和你讨论]
[不过这段写的很好，有细节的分析也有闪光的陈述]
In addition, the arguer's conclusion is based on an unconvincing assumption. The arguer groundlessly considers that if the economy is proved, people of this country will surely buy fitness-related products and services.  The will of purchasing is decided by a lot of factors, like price level, quality, income, etc. However, the arguer doesn't give us any information to prove it.[所谓的套话可以省掉或者换个说法]
[这段仅仅是讲述原文就占了一大部分，分析只有一句，我认为你可以展开这句，而且，我认为这是很重要的一个逻辑错误应该加重笔墨，前面的陈述尽量从简吧]

（缩窄了fitness的定义; fitness 不一定要器具的，还可以跑步，体操，太极拳等等）
What's more, the arguer narrows the definition of fitnes.[对这点的驳斥，定位很好] The arguer mistakenly believes that fitness could only be done with fitness-related products and services. However, it is not the case. It is entirely possible that most of the people in Corpora prefer the fitness without tools like jogging, running, dancing.[这句话完全可以展开进行分析，增加驳斥的力度] So, without ruling out this possibility, and without correctly recognizing the scope of fitness, how could the arguer make the conclusion?

To sum up, the argument is logically unsound. To strengthen it, the arguer must show more information to prove that using computer could not lead to fit decrease. To better evaluate the argument, the arguer has to have a full understand of the scope of "fitness". And particularly, more information has to be shown that there is some causal relationship between the economic decline and fitness degrade

[我觉的你的问题主要是说得都比较浅，总是点到，但是说得又不过瘾。
也正是因此，你的每个段落，TS和总结句的长度和分量大过了中间的议论部分
另外就是逻辑安排不够合理，可以把survey的那段放在第三段
嗯，你的问题结构上还有分析，我觉得都是很好提高的,GOOD LUCK!]

[ 本帖最后由 geniego 于 2006-8-1 17:55 编辑 ]

pewcg8UID: 2143213

精灵改的很认真的说.