argument76 写了好久,求拍!

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT76 - The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.

"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."

In this article, by citing the result of a study, the arguer concludes that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin. On the surface, the argument would appears to be somewhat logical, however, further scrutiny reveals how groundless it is.

To begin with, no information about the total number of the volunteers is provided. The study's sample must be sufficient in size to make a sound conclusion. If, for example, there were only 10-20 people participated in the study, the result of the study would be statistically meaningless since so few people may can not represent all the consumers. Also, from the study quoted in the argument, we find no sigh of such procedures for random sampling. Since these subjects are volunteers, it is entirely possible that these people care more about their skin and appearance than average people, so they spend more time everyday on the tending of their face which surely result in the improvement of their facial condition even without the help of Luxess. As a result, we have a good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitudes of all kinds of customers as a whole.

Moreover, the arguer fails to consider and rule out other factors that may affect the conditions of the subjects' face in a month. Considering all the volunteers washed their faces with mild soap before applying Luxess, it is highly possible that it is the soap, together with Luxess, or just itself, that functioned effectively. Besides, contingencies such as regular life step, healthy food, appropriate exercise and happy mood can all lead to the improvement of the facial skin. Without eliminating all the possibilities, the author can not rely on the survey to conclude Luxess if effective.

Finally, we have good reason to question the way the result of the study was obtained. As mentioned in the argument, the conductor of the study collected the result only by asking the subjects about their feelings about themselves. It is quite subjective to evaluate self. Lacking a objective evaluation system, hardly can we get draw any reasonable conclusion about the effect of Luxess. In addition, the arguer also fails to provided us with the percentage of volunteers who were responded, "most" is such a vague description. Does it mean 51% or 99%? If the actual number is 99%, the result of the study may make sense; if it is 51%, it does not. Without precise figure, it is improper to conclude anything.

To sum up, the study on which the conclusion is based is full of problems. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more information about the procedures of study and design a good evaluation system to improve the validity the result. And at the same time, others conditions that may affecting the effect of the study should be excluded.