argument147 <<疾速末班车>>第一次作业

jdmsUID: 2237441

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 558                 

In this argument, the author recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support his view, the author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated that the sales will be increased and a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring state of the art computers. The author then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old-the demographic group most likely to play video games. However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals various logical problems, which render it unconvincing.

   In the first place, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Survey methodology might be problematic in two respects: First, we are not informed whether the number of people participated in the survey is large enough to interpret the fact scientifically and legitimately. Without the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is logically unsounded to assess the validity of the survey. In other words, the larger the statistical sample the more reliable the results; secondly, unless the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall population of video-game enthusiasts, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success of Whirlwind’s new games. Therefore, there is absent of information about the respondents in the survey.

   In the second place, given that people 10-25 years old prefer games with lifelike graphics, it does not follow that players are likely to buy their products since there are many alternate choices.  It is entirely possible that other merchants provide more interesting and incitant games. Besides, since Whirlwind’ video games have declined in the past two years. It is quite possible that the quality of their games is poor.

   In the third place, the author fails to point out the actual reason why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years. Perhaps other factors are responsible for the decline such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management, which have not been solved still. Or perhaps the whole market is in depression. If so , Whirlwind’s introduction of its new games and ad campaign will do nothing to reverse the problem. Without ruling out alternative explanations for the decline, I cannot be convinced that Whirlwind’s new strategy will reverse that decline at all-let alone dramatically.

   Finally, even assuming that the ad campaign successfully attracts many 10-25 year-olds to Whirlwind’s new games, the argument rests on additional assumptions: (1) that players’ interesting  in the lifelike graphics will continue in the next few months, and (2) that players will prefer Whirlwind video games over other merchants that sell similar products. Without eliminating these possibilities, the author cannot ensure that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales.

   In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must provide more convincing evidence that people 10-25 years old are really most likely to play video games and would be interested in Whirlwind’ new games. In order to better evaluate the argument, I would need more information about 1) the reason why the two-year sales to decline;2) the number and representation of the respondents;3) what the market condition will be during the next few months, if any.
大家严重打击偶吧,偶不怕!:p

[ 本帖最后由 jdms 于 2006-8-11 05:28 编辑 ]

clockappleUID: 183215

写等不错，很充分

hystrawberryUID: 2220889

In this argument, the author recommends that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support his view, the author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated that the sales will be increased and a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring state of the art computers. The author then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old-the demographic group most likely to play video games. However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals various logical problems, which render it unconvincing.

   In the first place, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Survey methodology might be problematic in two respects: First, we are not informed whether the number of people participated in the survey is large enough to interpret the fact scientifically and legitimately. Without the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is logically unsounded to assess the validity of the survey. In other words, the larger the statistical sample the more reliable the results; secondly, unless the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall population of video-game enthusiasts, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success of Whirlwind’s new games. Therefore, there is absent of information about the respondents in the survey.

   In the second place, given that people 10-25 years old prefer games with lifelike graphics, it does not follow that players are likely to buy their products since there are many alternate choices.  It is entirely possible that other merchants provide more interesting and incitant games. Besides, since Whirlwind’ video games have declined in the past two years. It is quite possible that the quality of their games is poor.

   In the third place, the author fails to point out the actual reason why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years. Perhaps other factors are responsible for the decline such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management, which have not been solved still. Or perhaps the whole market is in depression. If so , Whirlwind’s introduction of its new games and ad campaign will do nothing to reverse the problem. Without ruling out alternative explanations for the decline, I cannot be convinced that Whirlwind’s new strategy will reverse that decline at all-let alone dramatically.

   Finally, even assuming that the ad campaign successfully attracts many 10-25 year-olds to Whirlwind’s new games, the argument rests on additional assumptions: (1) that players’ interesting  in the lifelike graphics will continue in the next few months, and (2) that players will prefer Whirlwind video games over other merchants that sell similar products. Without eliminating these possibilities, the author cannot ensure that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales.

   In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must provide more convincing evidence that people 10-25 years old are really most likely to play video games and would be interested in Whirlwind’ new games. In order to better evaluate the argument, I would need more information about 1) the reason why the two-year sales to decline;2) the number and representation of the respondents;3) what the market condition will be during the next few months, if any.