argument 218 [smile-B组] 第十次作业， 拍拍拍！～

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Argument 218 (写前不知道题目，30分钟, 自己想的有一点没写到, thirdly后面的内容就是后来补的一点)
The arguer raises a conclusion that they should discontinue all their action toys and focus on a new line of educational toys and sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase, by citing the result of the survey and other toy companies’ achievements. This argument seem to be reasonable at first glance, but if we exam it carefully, we would find it suffers from several flaws.

In the first place, the validity of the survey is doubtful, in evaluating the evidence of the survey, one need to consider how the survey was conducted. If the questions were leading or the survey relied on self-report, the result of the survey id unreliable--- the participants might just responded with the expected answer. One also needs to consider how broad the survey was, if the number of the parents who take part in the survey is small, the generalization of the survey is questionable.

In the second place, the arguer fails to convince us that it is the parents' changing concern about better education cause the Fierce Fighter toy airplane decline. For one thing, it might be the case that, the quality of their products are decreasing dramatically, and even the toy would cause injuries, so the parents stop purchasing this kind of toy. It might also be the case that their advertising force is reduced, they put little money on the advertisement campaign, people even do not know the information about the Fierce Fighter toy airplane. With out excluding these possibilities, this argument is unconvincing.

Thirdly, the evidence that the arguer provides is insufficient to support the conclusion that discontinuing all action toys and focusing on a new line of educational toys would maintain the profits. Whether several other toy companies’ increasing sales is the result of marketing educational toys is still open to doubt. We are not well informed about the detailed information of sales report, maybe the proportion of the educational toy is very low and the educational toy does not gain profit at all. In addition, the implement of a new line would cost the company a lot of money and resource, the profits brought by  the educational even cannot compensate the loss.   

Before I come to my final conclusion, I would like to point out that the claim that sales of new Hyper-Go should also increase is rootless. We are not well informed about the detailed information about new Hyper-Go toys, maybe it is not suitable for children to play, and there is no reason for the parents to waste money.

In sum, the argument lacks credibility because the arguer fails to provide substantial evidence to prove the conclusion. To strengthen the analysis, the arguer needs to provide to detailed information about the survey and figure out the real reason of the other companies' achievements and the declining sales of action toy.
我在考虑头尾是不是写短一点，我打字太慢了！