Argument45 请狂拍，必回拍 【CSMY作文互改小组】第六次作业

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Argument45 【CSMY作文互改小组】第六次作业
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


TIME: 30min 用PP3练习的原稿  DATE：2007-1-21
In the above argument, the author cites the fact that Arctic deers have to move over ice from ond island to another island every year to search food, and that with global warming in recent years, the number of deer decreased. Based primarily on the evidence, the author asserts that the decline of the population of Arctic deers result from they cannot come across the frozen sea with the age-old migration patterns. Nonetheless, the author relies on a series of indecisive assumptions which render it entirely indefensible as it stands.

First of all, the author has trouble establishing the causal relationship between  the recent global warming trends and the decline of the population of Arctic deers. The author just show us that the recent global warming trends and the decline of the population of Arctic deers happens at the same time. Yet, this is not enough to substantiate the cause-effect relationship between them. Therefore, without any sufficient information about it, the conclusion that the recent global warming trends is the cause of the decline of the population of Arctic deers is unwarrented and unconvincing.

Additionally, the author has not taken into account that a variety of other factors will contribute to the decline of the population of Arctic deers. For instance, the local hunters maybe capture Arctic deers. It might also be the case that other bigger and stronger animals will  regard Arctic deers as their foods. Without complete considering and rulling out the possibility, the author cannot insufficiently draw any conclusion.

Last but not least, the author just tell us that the number of Arctic deers is decrising, but the author fails to show us what portion of the population of Arctic deers decline. Maybe the decresing of the population of Arctic deers is not as much, and it is due to natural death, so we are no worried about it. Therefore, the author cannot valide the conclusion

Overall, the conclution that Arctic deers are not able to go across the frozen sea with age-old migration is responsible for the decrease of the decline of the population of Arctic deers seems sound at first glance. Nevertheless, before any final conclusions was made, the author should provide better proof that there actually exists caucal relationship between the recent global warming trends and the decline of the population of Arctic deers.  Also, it would be useful to contain the particular information about other adequate factors.

[ 本帖最后由 yangfangisok 于 2007-1-21 20:02 编辑 ]