argument099 [米国有米] 2.12

绚烂夏花UID: 2245298

Argument99
The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."

---正文----

Based on dubious evidence and illogical reasoning, the argument is far from perfect. Firstly, the author regards a correlation as a causal relationship. Secondly, the author commits a fallacy of false analogy. Moreover, the author overlooks alternative possibilities. I will explain them one by one.

To begin with, the author fails to establish a causal relationship between the increase in rice harvest and the use of a newly developed variety of seed in Abundia last year. It is highly possible other factors contribute to the increase. For instance, the weather--sunshine, rain and temprture--last year may be marvelously favorable for the growth of rice. It is also likely farmers in Abundia introduced new style of machines and technologies for the cultivating rice. Besides, the author fails to provide detailed information about the amount of rive produced in previous years. If rice produced ,say in the past four or five years, used to increase by more than 100%, then the production last year is not that satisfying. Without ruling out such and other possibilities, it is presumptuous to deduce that the using of the new seed is the cause for the increase in rice production.

Besides, even if the relationship discussed above is really a causal relationship, it is highly doubtable that the same implements in can be applied to Paucia. Differences between the two countries may outweigh their similarities, thus making the assertion extremely suspect. Before planting this newly developed variety of seed, the geographic condition and climate of the regions should be taken into account. If, for example, Paucia is a country with most of its land being mountains or rivers but litter plains and the climate there featured with draught or little rainfall, then it may be unwise to plant rice which calls for flat land and ample water. What's more, farmers in Paucia may have little experience about planting rice, which may prevent the effective of the application. And what if the newly introduced rice fail to meet the taste of consumers in Paucia who are used to their traditional food? If these were the case, whether the farmer's income would increase or not is open to doubt.

In addition, the author unfairly assume that the country's balance of trade can be improved by exporting the high yield of rice. Many alternative possibilities which can seriously influence the balance of trade are overlooked in this argument. For example, is there any demand for such sort of rice in the international market? Would the price of the rice be too high to satisfy the need of the potential purchasers? Moreover, when we talk about the balance of trade, export is not the only factor--the import of machines and high-tech and the like should be considered. If the country spends too much money on import, the effect of exporting rice may leave little change to the balance of the trade. Therefore, the author's assertion should be reconsidered.

After careful consideration, the author lacks both sufficient evidence and precise reasoning to make a sound argument. it can be improved if the author make a thorough investment into at least three aspects mentioned above, thus providing solid evidence to prove his or her recommendation.

xwy8187UID: 2217620

Based on dubious evidence and illogical reasoning, the argument is far from perfect. Firstly, the author regards a correlation as a causal relationship. Secondly, the author commits a fallacy of false analogy. Moreover, the author overlooks alternative possibilities. I will explain them one by one.（貌似你argument开头的写法很多哦，这又是一个了）

To begin with, the author fails to establish a causal relationship between the increase in rice harvest and the use of a newly developed variety of seed in Abundia last year. It is highly possible other factors contribute to the increase. For instance, the weather--sunshine, rain and temprture--last year may be marvelously favorable for the growth of rice. It is also likely farmers in Abundia introduced new style of machines and technologies for the cultivating rice. Besides, the author fails to provide detailed information about the amount of rive produced in previous years. If rice produced ,say in the past four or five years, used to increase by more than 100%, then the production last year is not that satisfying. Without ruling out such and other possibilities, it is presumptuous to deduce that the using of the new seed is the cause for the increase in rice production.（想挑毛病,just挑不出）

Besides, even if the relationship discussed above is really a causal relationship, it is highly doubtable that the same implements in can be applied to Paucia. Differences between the two countries may outweigh their similarities, thus making the assertion extremely suspect. Before planting this newly developed variety of seed, the geographic condition and climate of the regions should be taken into account. If, for example, Paucia is a country with most of its land being mountains or rivers but litter plains and the climate there featured with draught or little rainfall, then it may be unwise to plant rice which calls for flat land and ample water. What's more, farmers in Paucia may have little experience about planting rice, which may prevent the effective of the application. And what if the newly introduced rice fail to meet the taste of consumers in Paucia who are used to their traditional food? If these were the case, whether the farmer's income would increase or not is open to doubt.

In addition, the author unfairly assume that the country's balance of trade can be improved by exporting the high yield of rice. Many alternative possibilities which can seriously influence the balance of trade are overlooked in this argument. For example, is there any demand for such sort of rice in the international market? Would the price of the rice be too high to satisfy the need of the potential purchasers? Moreover, when we talk about the balance of trade, export is not the only factor--the import of machines and high-tech and the like should be considered. If the country spends too much money on import, the effect of exporting rice may leave little change to the balance of the trade. Therefore, the author's assertion should be reconsidered.（还是好啦）

After careful consideration, the author lacks both sufficient evidence and precise reasoning to make a sound argument. it can be improved if the author make a thorough investment into at least three aspects mentioned above, thus providing solid evidence to prove his or her recommendation.（说实话，我现在的argument结尾就是学着你的）