Argument71 【0706G－LOVEAW】第一次模考 by iq28

iq28UID: 2152875

TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
WORDS: 447          TIME: 0:26:26          DATE: 2007-3-7

The author draws a conclusion that since new technologies have been developed, the copper-extraction industry can decline the consumption of electricity significantly. However, such conclusion is based on steps of logical confusing inferences, which I will discuss in the following details.

To begin with, the information about the new technologies provided by the author is too vague to make any sense. Although the author says such technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method, but such compare between the two methods is based on that the latter process handle the ore with high proportion of copper, while the former deal with the ore with low copper proportion. It is entirely possible that when the proportion of copper in the ore is low or at a normal standard, the difference of the electricity consumed in the process is very tiny. In such cases, if the majority of the copper ores in the world have a normal proportion of copper, the application of the new technologies will not reduce the consumption of electricity of copper-extraction industry significantly.

Moreover, even if the possibility mentioned above does not exist, we cannot hope the decline in electricity consumption until the new technologies have already taken the place of the old technologies widely. As is known to all, to apply a new technology is not an immediately event after its birth. The industry of copper-extraction may consider many other factors. For example, the expensive prices of the new equipments, a retrain courses of the employees and so forth. All such factors may prohibit the new technologies from prevailing in a short time. Therefore, unless such technologies have already been accepted by the industry of copper-extraction, the lower consumption cannot be expected.

Finally, granted that the technologies have already been accepted by the industry, still there are many other factors that may influence the electricity consumption. It is entirely possible that as the development of the copper industry, the former kind of copper ore has been used up. The present copper ore they may process now is very low in quality, which may cause large amounts of extra electricity than before so that the electricity consumption may not be lowered. Also, if the production of copper is increasing fast, the overall electricity consumption still cannot decline although the electricity consumption per unit is much lower than before. Failing to take those factors into consideration, the author' assertion cannot convince me.

In summary, the author should conduct further investigation of the new technologies. Also, he should investigate the attitudes of the industry towards the new technologies and the future trends of the copper market before he proposes his conclusion again.