Argument10 BY yhkobe1985

yhkobe1985UID: 2209035

TOPIC: ARGUMENT10 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
WORDS: 510          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2007-6-11
In the argument, the author asserts that the regulation on milk prices is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for customers. To support his assertion, the author cites a fact that the number of dairy farms through country has greatly increased. At the same time, the author points out that the milk price at the local Excello Food Market has increased. However, the argument is based on a series of unjustifiable assumptions, all of which make the argument ill-founded at all.
                                               
In the first place, to support his assertion, the author cites a fact that the department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. However, this evidence is weak to support the author's assertion for the reason that there is no information about such new dairy farms in such reports.  Perhaps, those new dairy farms are concentrated in other areas. Or perhaps, the number of dairy farms in Batavia has decreased during the past ten years. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author can not convince me that the number of dairy farms have increased in Batavia.

Secondly, even if the number of dairy farms in Batavia has increased during the past ten years, the author unfairly assumes that the local milk price has increased. Although the author points out that the price of milk at the local Excello Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon, this evidence may be a particular example and not be representative to the overall milk prices in Batavia. It is wholly possible that the price of milk at other markets is lower than $1.50 per gallon. If so, the author's assertion that the price of milk in Batavia is higher than the price throughout the country is ill-convincing at all.

Finally, even if the price of milk in Batavia is higher than the price in any other place in the country, the author's assertion that to regulate the milk price will ensure an adequate supply of milk for consumers is dubious. It is entirely possible that some of dairy farms in Batavia may have to stop their operation for the reason that they can not gain enough profit in the sales of milk. It is equally possible that managers of the farms may choose to reduce the productivity of milk to ensure their profit. If such situations come out, the assertion that the regulation will ensure an adequate supply of milk is unjustifiable.

In sum, the argument is weak as it stands. To support the assertion, the author must provide clear evidence that the number of dairy farms in Batavia has increased during the past ten years. In the mean while, the author must provide evidence that the average price of milk in Batavia is higher than any other city in the country. To better assess the argument, the author has to make a promise that the regulation will ensure an adequate supply of milk to consumers.

[ 本帖最后由 lastangel 于 2007-6-16 17:32 编辑 ]

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The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
WORDS: 510          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2007-6-11
In the argument, the author asserts that the (第一次提到用不定惯词) regulation on milk prices is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for customers. To support his assertion, the author cites a fact that the number of dairy farms through country has greatly increased. At the same time, the author points out that the milk price at the local Excello Food Market has increased.(作者引用这两个论据怎么来论证论点? 是直接用来论证要制定规范的么? 作者的逻辑是: 农场数量多了+牛奶价格涨了->农民的收入过多了->所以要制订规范, 中间还有一个逻辑层次, 这对于你后面的论证是必要的, 因此如果复述题目的话最好把题目中各元素的地位进行剖析, 而不是单纯地叙述题目中有哪些东西, 这样做意义不大) However, the argument is based on a series of unjustifiable assumptions, all of which make the argument ill-founded at all.
                                               
In the first place, to support his assertion, the author cites a fact that the department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago.(assertion很笼统, 作者全文都在support his assertion, 这个论据如此表达就显得针对性不够, 这里可以说明事实论据无效, 或者说明数量多不代表价格就应该下降, 等等) However, this evidence is weak to support the author's assertion for the reason that there is no information about such new dairy farms in such reports.(连续出现support assertion这种重复表达, 可以用嵌套结构加以整合)  Perhaps, those new dairy farms are concentrated in other areas.(这跟价格有什么关系? 运费? 地方性农场不给其它地方供货? 论证请完整) Or perhaps, the number of dairy farms in Batavia has decreased during the past ten years.(都说了是增加了怎么可能还是降低呢?) Without ruling out such possibilities, the author can not convince me that the number of dairy farms have increased in Batavia.(...实在没看出来你这段想论证什么, 单是数量的话题目已经说得很明白了, 难道要置疑作者虚假报告么? 这种攻击已经不是论战的范畴了)

Secondly, even if the number of dairy farms in Batavia has increased during the past ten years, the author unfairly assumes that the local milk price has increased. Although the author points out that the price of milk at the local Excello Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon, this evidence may be a particular example and not be representative to the overall milk prices in Batavia. It is wholly possible that the price of milk at other markets is lower than $1.50 per gallon.(虽然这么论证是没什么问题, 但实际的去想一下一个商场的价格如果比别的商场高这么多它还有生存空间么? 这种时候需要进行一些推理, 比如牛奶的品种, 消费者构成, 牛奶的加工等等) If so, the author's assertion that the price of milk in Batavia is higher than the price throughout the country is ill-convincing at all.(忽略了资金的时间价值问题, 10年物价翻上一翻也是很可能的, 这个比置疑样本代表性更有实际依据)

Finally, even if the price of milk in Batavia is higher than the price in any other place in the country, the author's assertion that to regulate the milk price will ensure an adequate supply of milk for consumers is dubious.(漏了作者的一个假设:farmers receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, 这个才是作者眼中为什么消费者不能得到有效牛奶供应的原因 ) (If such regulations are released, )It is entirely possible that some of dairy farms in Batavia may have to stop their operation for the reason that they can not gain enough profit in the sales of milk. It is equally possible that managers of the farms may choose to reduce the productivity of milk to ensure their profit.(不要总用it is possible这种句式, 适当的更换下用法, 并提出"根据市场规律"等等依据会让你的文章摆脱俗套) If such situations come out, the assertion that the regulation will ensure an adequate supply of milk is unjustifiable.(这里的表达很模版化, 其实完全可以说the regulation will be counterproductive)

In sum, the argument is weak as it stands. To support the assertion, the author must provide clear evidence that the number of dairy farms in Batavia has increased during the past ten years. In the mean while, the author must provide evidence that the average price of milk in Batavia is higher than any other city in the country. To better assess the argument, the author has to make a promise that the regulation will ensure an adequate supply of milk to consumers.

总评: LZ写的文章比较完整, 论点都有对应的论证和论据, 但破题有问题, 论述中也显得方向不清楚.
本题作者的出发点是供应上升了, 价格却上升了, 这种违反市场规律的现象必然造成购买者受到利益的伤害, 但其实作者在这题里最大的问题是对市场和价格进行了不完全分析, 他忽视了需求量上升, 通货膨胀以及价格限制的负面影响等等问题, 因此在批驳每条论据的时候, 这种错误应该是贯穿始终了, 虽然LZ有效的提出了几条, 但并不完整, 文章也缺乏这种内在逻辑联系, 很机械地按照3段式对论据进行一一批驳, 这样的结果是BODY第一部分破题方向不对, 第二部分不够饱满, 第三部分则把作者的关键假设给漏了. 建议LZ在对ARGUMENT分析的时候多思考下, 加强提纲写作, 把握作者的逻辑, 这样会让你的文章不象是和其它题目的文章同样的模子里刻出来的.

[ 本帖最后由 lastangel 于 2007-6-16 17:29 编辑 ]