argument65 [加州阳光]第六次作业

lixiaomin046400UID: 2207959

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 501         TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-7-6

In a memo the president of a chain of cheese stores recommends the best way to improve profits in all their stores is to discontinue stocking of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese since it can reduce expenses. To support this recommendation the president points out that domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are the best-selling in their newest store last year. The president also cites a recent survey conducted by Cheese of World magazine, which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheese among its subscribers. The recommendation suffers from several logical flaws.

To begin with, the president depends on the fact that domestic cheeses from Wisconsin are sold best in their five newest stores. Yet the fact proves nothing. The newest store cannot stand for all of their stores, perhaps only the newest store sell the domestic cheeses best. Or perhaps the newest store is in Wisconsin where the people like this kind of cheeses. Moreover, It is entirely possible that its best-selling contributes to the stores' promoting activities. And perhaps the price of the five cheeses is quite cheap. With out ruling out all other reasons why the domestic cheeses from Wisconsin are sold best, the recommendation is dubious at best.

Even if the five best-selling cheeses in the newest store can indicate the people's preference for domestic cheeses, the president relies on a recent survey that preference for domestic cheeses is increasing is questionable. First, the responders are only the magazine's subscribers, which are too limited to stand for all the people's preference. Second, the subscribers might not be the consumers but the people who study on domestic cheeses. If so, the result of the survey is doubtful. Third, it is entirely possible that the consumers who love imported cheeses do not send their responds. In that matter, it is unfair to draw the conclusion that the preference for domestic cheeses is increasing. In a short, without more information about the survey, on which the recommendation depends is unconvincing.

Even if the survey is reliable, the president fails to consider other course of action that might improve profits. It is unfair to claim that discontinuing stock of imported cheeses is the best way. Perhaps carrying on some promoting strategies can gain profits, or perhaps the store's improvement of its management can lead to high profits. Without weighing the proposal against alternatives, the president's recommendation that they should place emphasis on domestic cheeses if wholly unfounded.

In sum, the president's recommendation is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the president must show that not only in the newest store but also in other stores, domestic cheeses are best sold and it is not other factors lead to best-selling in the newest store. The president must also show that the survey is reliable and the magazine has wide readers that are representative for all cheese consumers. Furthermore, to better assess the recommendation I would need more information that other proposals are not the best way to improve profits.

想在30分钟内完成，还是没实现:L

[ 本帖最后由 lixiaomin046400 于 2006-7-6 22:26 编辑 ]