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时间:90m 字数:568
提纲
1、survey not convincing
2、normal players cannot afford the most up-to-date computers, and thus cannot afford the games.
3、players have other alternatives. brand loyalty.
4、decline 可能有其他原因,而单单是内容,就算改了一方面,也不可能马上增加。
小改后的版本,谢谢你们的意见
In this argument, the arguer predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games will witness a dramatic rise in the following two months since Whirlwind has just introduced several new games specially designed to meet the preference of game players according to a recent survey result. However, careful scrutiny of this argument would immediately reveal a series of critical flaws it suffers from.
First of all, the arguer draw the prediction based on the results of an unreliable survey without providing any vital information of the survey sample. It is likely that the part of the survey sample was not aged between10 to 25 and therefore reduces the effectiveness of the advertisements directed at that age group. Besides, the sample may not be large enough to be representative of game players. If the survey sample was mainly picked from high-end customers, their preference cannot represent that of normal players. In addition, the arguer also fails to tell the location where the survey is conducted. If that area is very remote to the one where Whirlwind does intensive advertising, the ad campaign would probably be quite ineffective. Therefore, the arguer's prediction will not be convincing until he provides the above-mentioned key information of this survey.
Secondly, the arguer assumes that the majority of game players have already owned or would buy the most up-to-date computers to play the new Whirlwind video games, which is probably not true among the age group between 10 to 25 years old. Since the majority of this age group are high school and college students who are still supported by their parents, the chances that they have or buy the most expensive computers to play games are rather slim. Their parents are unwilling to give them such a large amount of money on playing computer games. Therefore, it is highly possible that sales of the new video games will decline continually since the potential customers may not have advanced hardwares to play the games.
Additionally, the arguer ignores the powerful existence of competitors of Whirlwind, who might have already introduced similar products to the market. If Whirlwind's new games are confronted with a number of competitive products, its sales will not rise so dramatically in the next few months. Furthermore, high-level game players may have loyalty to a certain game brands, making it harder for Whirlwind to intrude into the high-end market. Whirlwind's poor performance over the past two years may also lost customers' confidence in its games.
Finally, the continuous sales decline of Whirlwind games over the past two years may be brought about by a series of reasons. If Whirlwind only provides lifelike graphics instead of improving other aspects of its product and service relevant to its sales decline, the expected sales boom is unlikely to take place. For instance, customers may dislike the poor after-sales service provided by Whirlwind or the art design of its games is rather hideous. Therefore, it remains Whirlwind's first priority to identify the reasons contributing to the sales decrease, and design sales strategies accordingly.
To sum up, the above discussion has fully demonstrated the lame logic and analysis underlying this argument. The argument would be more convincing if the arguers proved the validity of the survey and identify the real factors leading to the sales decline. Whirlwind will not see business improvement until its rejuvenating strategies are based on reliable data and analysis.
原来的版本
In this argument, the arguer predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games will witness a dramatic rise in the following two months since Whirlwind has just introduced several new games specially designed to meet the preference of game players according to a recent survey result. However, a careful examination of this argument would immediately reveal a series of critical flows it suffers from.
First of all, the arguer draw the prediction based on the results of an unreliable survey without providing any vital information of the survey sample. It is very likely that the part of the survey sample was not aged between10 to 25 and therefore reduces the effectiveness of the advertisements directed at that age group. Besides, the sample may not be large enough to be representative of game players. If the survey sample happens to be high-end customers, their preference cannot represent that of normal players. In addition, the arguer also fails to tell the location where the survey is conducted. If that area is very remote to the one where Whirlwind does intensive advertising, the ad campaign would probably be quite ineffective. Since the arguer provides insufficient information about the survey, the prediction drawn upon its result certainly loses it validity.
Secondly, the arguer assumes that the majority of game players have already owned or would buy the most up-to-date computers to play the new Whirlwind video games, which is probably not true among the age group between 10 to 25 years old. Since the majority of this age group are high school and college students who are still supported by their parents, the chances that they have or buy the most expensive computers to play games are rather slim. Their parents are unwilling to give them such a large amount of money on playing computer games. Therefore, it is highly possible that sales of the new video games will see no improvement since the customers do not have the advanced hard wares to play the games.
Additionaly, the arguer ignores the powerful existence of other competitors of Whirlwind, who might have already introduced similar products to the market. If Whirlwind's new games are confronted with a number of competitive products, its sales will not rise so dramatically in the next few months. Furthermore, high-level game players may have loyalty to a certain game brands, making it harder for Whirlwind to intrude in the high-end market. Whirlwind's poor performance over the past two years also reduces customers' confidence in its games.
Finally, the continuous sales decline of Whirlwind games over the past two years may be brought about a series of reasons. If Whirlwind only provides lifelike graphics instead of improving other aspects of its product and service relevant to its sales decline, the expected sales boom is unlikely to take place. For instance, customers may dislike the poor after-sales service provided by Whirlwind or the art design of its games is rather hideous. Therefore, it remains Whirlwind's first priority to identify the reasons contributing to the sales decrease, and design sales strategies accordingly.
To sum up, the above discussion have fully demonstrated the lame logic and analysis underlying this argument. The argument would be more convincing if the arguers prove the validity of the survery and identify the real factors leading to the sales decline. Whirlwind will not see business improvement until its rejuvenating strategies are based on reliable data and analysis.
[ 本帖最后由 leaf99 于 2006-6-11 16:59 编辑 ] |
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