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JianchuanUID: 2121431

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elvazhang1022UID: 208363

ARGUMENT24 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."

The president of Viva-Tech recommends in his memo that Viva-Tech should close some existing small plants and build a new one in Grandview in order to reduce cost. To support his recommendation, the president cited several facts. Although these reasons sound credible in the first place, close scrutiny reveals that NONE OF these facts are.

In the first place, the president unwarrantedly asserts that the existing small assembly plants are the cause of high costs, and he infers that replacing these small plants with a large central one could reduce costs. However, there is no sufficient evidence to support this assumption. After all, to begin a brand new plant is a costly investment, let alone it is a "large central" one. The saving this large one MIGHT bring up might never compensate the spending it costs. The following argument based on this flawed assumption turns to be unconvincing in the first place.

Given it is necessary to close small plants and open a new big one, the speaker's argument lent no credible support to the point that they should open the new plant in Grandview. The president takes the Grandview's largest population as a indicator, which is unwarranted. After all, no matter how large the factory is, they cannot staff their employees with a population which is significant to the grand population of the area. It is totally possible that other city can provide the new plant with adequate stuff.

The mere fact that the average wage of worker in Grandview is less is again not sufficient to conclude that Viva-Tech can save costs through this advantage. Perhaps Grandview residents are initially bad workers and therefore they deserve low wage. Or perhaps the living standard in this city is low, after Viva-Tech's entering, it will be brought up and leading to wage rise, offsetting the advantage. Without ruling out all these possibilities the president can not persuade us Grandview is the best place to locate.(提一下：也许该城的生产资料比较贵等等，反而会增加成本)
Finally, the free-tax policy for Viva-Tech is also insufficient to convince us, since it is possible that the plants would last for 20 years or longer. The tax advantage is relatively in significant. Moreover, it is also possible that during the three years the council will change its idea or it might look forward to compensating the loss of tax income through other methods, for example, other kinds of taxation.（还可以提出：只提到了三年免税，但没有提到该城其他方面的政策是否优惠，也许总体算起来政策会让成本增加呢）
In conclusion, this argument relies on serial unwarranted assumptions and therefore is unconvincing as it stands. To bolster this recommendation, the president should provide sufficient evidence to prove Grandview could (1) offer well—qualified stuff, (2) provide wage advantage and (3) stable tax-free policy. To better assess this argument, I need additional information that the small assembly plants is the cause of high costs and the to-build large central plant will solve this problem.