ARGUMENT217

dsndiziUID: 2792853

TOPIC: ARGUMENT217 - The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms.

"Now is the time to invest in a Power-Lift Gym franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit."
WORDS: 561

TIME: 00:28:00
DATE: 2010-7-24 11:09:50

Merely based on the unsounded assumptions and dubious evidence, the arguer draws a conclusion that investing in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit. In order to affirm his conclusion, the arguer quotes a survey, which show that in 500 locations Power-Lift Gym is popular and people more and more concern about their fitness, in addition, the arguer further lists a phenomenon that books and magazines sold more than before, and equipments also doubled in last year. Although the conclusion seems to be convincing and appealing at first glance, it is in fact ill-received after close scrutiny of the assumptions and evidences. In my point of view, there are at least three flaws.

First and foremost, the arguer Power-Lift Gym has already popular, which he quotes a number of five hundreds.
Even five hundreds may be heard as a large number, while there is no guarantee it is the case, as the arguer fails to provide a number to compare. Actually it is highly possible that there may ten thousands of locations there, only five hundreds is such a small percentage. In addition, it is also probably that the population of each of these five hundreds locations is very small, even can not compare ten locations which their population might in fact surpass the whole of five hundreds areas. Factors such as these may undermine the fact that Power-Lift Gym is indeed very popular. Thus the assumption is unwarranted.

In the second place, the arguer unfairly assumes the magazines and books on personal health had been doubled in the last year gives the birth that people are more and concern their health thus will go to Power-Lift Gym franchise. While, there is no evidence to confirm the assumption. First of all, people may indeed concern their health, while they are very possible more care about eating or other aspects, as the books and magazines may contain some scientific eating habits or even some tips prevent people suffer disasters. What's more, even if these books and magazines contains how to take exercises, it is not bound to say , people likely to go to gym, or there is no guarantee to make sure the trend will continue in future, as it is a matter of fact that people's habit is very likely to change. Moreover as it is said in the argument, more people buy equipment to home, which means that people can do sports at home rather than go to Power-Lift Gym franchise. Without out ruling out such possibilities, the assumption is unsounded.

Finally and may be the most importantly, the arguer hastily to draw a conclusion that Power-Lift Gym franchise will be profit. Profit is not only related with the buying force, but also with the cost, Power-Lift Gym franchise may cost a lot of money for building and hiring people, keeping security, upgrading equipments will also cover a lot of fund, by weighting the revenue and cost, it is not easily to say that Power-Lift Gym can validate a profit.

In conclusion, the argument, while it seems logical at first, fails to substantiate strong and credible evidence to support what the arguer claims. In order to make the conclusion more accepted and logical, the conclusion can be improved by reasoning more convincingly, citing more persuasive evidence, and can be further improved by taking every consideration into account.

短发mmUID: 2840480

1# dsndizi
Merely based on the unsounded assumptions and dubious evidence, the arguer draws a conclusion that investing in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit. In order to affirm his conclusion, the arguer quotes a survey, which show that in 500 locations Power-Lift Gym is popular and people more and more concern about their fitness, in addition, the arguer further lists a phenomenon that books and magazines sold more than before, and equipments also doubled in last year. (这个好像没有必要开头就交待,你后面攻击逻辑错误的时候肯定会提及)Although the conclusion seems to be convincing and appealing at first glance, it is in fact ill-received after close scrutiny of the assumptions and evidences. In my point of view, there are at least three flaws.
First and foremost, the arguer Power-Lift Gym has already popular, which he quotes a number of five hundreds.
Even five hundreds may be heard as a large number, while there is no guarantee it is the case, as the arguer fails to provide a number to compare. Actually it is highly possible that there may ten thousands of locations there, only five hundreds is such a small percentage. In addition, it is also probably that the population of each of these five hundreds locations is very small, even can not compare ten locations which their population might in fact surpass the whole of five hundreds areas. Factors such as these may undermine the fact that Power-Lift Gym is indeed very popular. Thus the assumption is unwarranted.(我一直不明白location是住户呢还是500方圆范围阿?)
In the second place, the arguer unfairly assumes the magazines and books on personal health had been doubled in the last year gives the birth that people are more and concern their health thus will go to Power-Lift Gym franchise. While, there is no evidence to confirm the assumption. First of all, people may indeed concern their health, while they are very possible more care about eating or other aspects, as the books and magazines may contain some scientific eating habits or even some tips prevent people suffer disasters. What's more, even if these books and magazines contains how to take exercises, it is not bound to say , people(are as) likely to go to gym, or there is no guarantee to make sure the trend will continue in future, as it is a matter of fact that people's habit is very likely to change. Moreover as it is said in the argument, more people buy equipment to home, which means that people can do sports at home rather than go to Power-Lift Gym franchise. Without out ruling out such possibilities, the assumption is unsounded.
Finally and may be the most importantly, the arguer hastily to draw a conclusion that Power-Lift Gym franchise will be profit. Profit is not only related with the buying force(?), but also with the cost, Power-Lift Gym franchise may cost a lot of money for building and hiring people, keeping security, upgrading equipments will also cover a lot of fund, by weighting the revenue and cost, it is not easily to say that Power-Lift Gym can validate(win) a profit.
In conclusion, the argument, while it seems logical at first, fails to substantiate strong and credible evidence to support what the arguer claims. In order to make the conclusion more accepted and logical, the conclusion can be improved by reasoning more convincingly, citing more persuasive evidence, and can be further improved by taking every consideration into account.