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Argument42  
------题目------
The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
'In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign.'
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Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the author draws a conclusion that Paraterra should hire current director of Bellegea’s National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign. To support the conclusion, the author points out that after an advertising campaign has launched in the nearby country Bellegea, the country's foreign visitor and income increased. However, this alone neither constitutes a logical argument in favor of the conclusion, nor provides compelling evidence making the argument sound. The author ignores such key issues which must be addressed to prove. In my point of view, the argument suffers from several flaws.

In the first place, the author made a false analogy between two countries. Although there are points of comparison, many dissimilarities are remained. The argument, thus, relying on the assumption that the conditions of Paraterra are analogous to that of Bellegea in all aspects, is so weak. It is for example, that there are many famous resorts in Bellegea, while only few resort in Paraterra. It is also possible that the economics of Bellegea develops much better than Paraterra, and the tourism can enjoy quite low taxes when they buy products in Paraterra; while these advantages all disappear in Bellegeas. In either event, only relying on such a simple mimicry,there would be litter effective.

In the second place, author attempts to establish a casual relationship between the adversting campain and the increase of foreign visitors and per capita income. However, this is not necessarily the cass. No evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. Perhaps there are other factors which caused the increase of personal income.  For example, in this year, huge amounts of crude oil has been found in Bellegea, many foreign companies decide to invest the oil factory in B, and hire a lot of local residents. Many foreign visitors are the delegate of their companies to have a discussion with the government and choose the proper location of their new factory. All of these mentioned above do not have any relationship with the advertising campaign.

Last but not least, the author recommends that we should hire the director of B to ensure the success of advertising campaign. If we concede that the advertising campaign will benefit to increase the per capita income and finally to strengthen the lagging economics, there is also no evidence provided to show that the director of B played a crucial role in the success of advertising campaign in the P. It is possible that the whole government make great effort to the campaign, and all public of P supported such kind of campaign. Without these supports, the campaign will fail .

To sum up, the argument seems to be plausible; in fact, it is neither sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave out such key issues, but also cites in analysis the evidence which does not lead strong support to what the author claims. To make to argument more convincing, the author would have to take the following condition into consideration: a detailed comparison between P and B include all aspects such as the population, the economic develop, and so on. If the argument includes the given factor guessed above, it would have been more thorough and adequate.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-24 at 12:01 ]