Argument208 寄托4人组 8-12

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

Argument208  第4篇 寄托4人组！
------摘要------
作者：BridgeWalker     共用时间：33分     410 words
从2005年8月12日16时12分到2005年8月12日16时30分
------题目------
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
'Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary.'
------提纲------
1.Survey有问题。
2.即使survey没问题，人们也不一定买新家电和技术。
3.即使买了，也不一定真能省电。
4.新用电大户的出现可能导致电力供应不足。
（这篇我没有时间写结尾了。正好想跟大家讨论一下argu结尾要不要，如果要怎样写比较好。谢谢！）
------正文------
The speaker argues that it is unnecessary to construction a new power plant because residents are willing to conserve energy and more and more energy-efficient home appliances and new technologies can lead to less electricity consumption. This argument is actually unsound due to the critical flaws pointed out below.

To begin with, the survey result that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy is unreliable. In evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider how it was conducted. If the questions were leading of if the survey relied on self reports, the result might be doubtful, for homeowners might just respond with the expected answer. One must also consider how broad the survey was. If it was limited to families living in apartment buildings or even rented rooms, the results might only reflect lower income families' opinion. Hence, the generalization drawn might not apply to the whole population. In addition, even if the survey was broader, one must consider whether it was confined in certain aspects. For example, was the survey applied only in a certain city or geographic region? Or do the respondents live in the place where the energy price is too high to consume? Factors such as these could give alternative explanation to the survey results and could undermine the generalizability of the survey.

In the second place, even if the survey is reliable, and most homeowners are willing to conserve energy, they might not buy these energy-efficient appliances and use new technologies to save energy. People who conserve energy are most likely for the sake of saving money. Since they have insufficient money to pay electricity they consumed, it is quite impossible for them to buy new appliances and technological products.

Moreover, even though homeowners will buy these new appliances and use new energy-saving technologies, the purpose of energy conserving would not be achieved. As these appliances and technologies can save energy efficiently, it is likely that homeowners may use them more frequently. As a result, the total amount of energy that consumed will ascend.

In addition, there might be other reasons that will cause electricity deficit in future. The speaker fails to prove that most of the company's electricity is used to serve families. There might be big factories and other electricity consuming organizations, whose electricity consumption is unpredictable. And, if new factories have been established recently, the electricity consumption will sharply increase. Thus, new power plant is necessary to meet their needs.

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

taken

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

Argument208  第4篇 寄托4人组！
------摘要------
作者：BridgeWalker     共用时间：33分     410 words
从2005年8月12日16时12分到2005年8月12日16时30分
------题目------
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
'Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary.'
------提纲------
1.Survey有问题。
2.即使survey没问题，人们也不一定买新家电和技术。
3.即使买了，也不一定真能省电。
4.新用电大户的出现可能导致电力供应不足。
（这篇我没有时间写结尾了。正好想跟大家讨论一下argu结尾要不要，如果要怎样写比较好。谢谢！）
------正文------
The speaker argues that it is unnecessary to [construction] a new power plant because [it seems that ]residents are willing to conserve energy and [the using of ]more and more energy-efficient home appliances and new technologies can lead to less electricity consumption. This argument is actually unsound due to the critical flaws pointed out below.

To begin with, the survey result that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy is unreliable. In evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider 【how it was conducted. 】If the questions were [leading of???] if the survey relied on self[???] reports, the result might be doubtful, for homeowners might just respond with the【 expected answer.】 One must also consider how broad the survey was. If it was limited to families living in apartment buildings or even rented rooms, the results might only reflect lower income families' opinion. Hence, the generalization drawn might not apply to the whole population. In addition, even if the survey was broader, one must consider whether it was confined in certain aspects. For example, was the survey applied only in a certain city or geographic region? Or do the respondents live in the place where the energy price is too high to consume? Factors such as these could give alternative explanation to the survey results and could undermine the generalizability of the survey.[将近一半儿的篇幅用在survey。对于survey我一向持保留意见，只要有其他要点在场的情况下，没必要对survey进行地毯式的攻击，毕竟时间是有效的。我觉得说到调查的范围是否够广，是否有代表性差不多就可以了。后面有很多更重要的点可以攻击]

In the second place, even if the survey is reliable, and most homeowners are willing to conserve energy, they might not buy these energy-efficient appliances and use new technologies to save energy. People who conserve energy are most likely for the sake of saving money. Since they have insufficient money to pay electricity they consumed, it is [quite impossible 改成很有可能他们买不起。]for them to buy new appliances and technological products.

Moreover, even though[好像和even if；even granted的意思是不一样的。后两者是在不认同的前提下假设，而even though是认同了。] homeowners will buy these new appliances and use new energy-saving technologies, the purpose of energy conserving would not be achieved. As these appliances and technologies can save energy efficiently, it is likely that homeowners may use them more frequently. As a result, the total amount of energy that consumed will ascend.[这点不错]

In addition, there might be other reasons that will cause electricity deficit in future. The speaker fails to prove that most of the company's electricity is used to serve families. There might be big factories and other electricity consuming organizations, whose electricity consumption is unpredictable.[这个词有点儿怪，为什么不可预期？就说它们可能占了更大份额就行了] And, if new factories have been established recently, the electricity consumption will sharply increase. Thus, new power plant is necessary to meet their needs.

[我觉得问题到不是结尾如何，而是是否把攻击点充分的展开。为了做到这一点，第一，开头可以能短就短，甚至我觉得赶上难题一句“I cannot agree with the author since the argument suffers from several flaws.”就行。真有时间可以再把结尾多写几句。
第二，survey适可而止。需要提到这一点，但没必要太详细，否则容易丢了西瓜。比如这道题我会这么展开：
1，        survey 的有效性和代表性
2，        就算人们普遍打算省电，新省电技术也不一定就能让人们省下电：
a．        不一定买电器。
b．        买的比例能有多大
c．        就算都买，人口上涨，电器需求大幅增加呢？
3．就算民用电少了，工业用电呢？
4．就算现在的电厂能够满足现有用电，电厂可能老化；就算可以继续用，建电厂也不是以现在的使用来计的，而是要考虑到未来几年的增长。]

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

呵呵，我写这一篇的初衷就是演练survey攻击。

这个survey攻击照搬自“Smile-Bright Toothpaste”那篇六分范文。

除了这个survey，其他的点好像都没有充分展开。

另外，这种过于详细的层进式可能导致没一点可说的很少，段落很多，最后只能将一些点合并。是不是这样的？

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

是，我现在正想办法不是每一个even granted都另起一段，而是看看能不能放在一个大主题下，用一段展开几个点。比如我列的第二点。

哥哥家有二师兄UID: 2124390

"

"limited to families living in apartment buildings or even rented rooms, the results might only reflect lower income families' opinion. "
吼吼,你这里讲的逻辑似乎并不严密哦

meautoUID: 2116250

先把调查,错误类比之类的典型错误写熟了
个人觉得开头和结尾都不是特别重要.开头还是要写的
首先考官熟悉题目,RESTATE就可以省了
逻辑都体现在正文 (改卷子的时间还只有几分钟)
所以   结尾就更不重要了
范文里还有一篇是完全没有结尾的阿狗.
一个误区是完全反驳阿狗,这样也是不对的
哪个啥HEMLETS的六分和5分都至少用了一句话肯定下下了原文
不过,有时间多写点字总是好看的.............

对于一般的劳苦大众(比如我)
是没有时间把所有的错误都点到    但是
至少要把最主要的错误都详细的展开下
我先联系并列式,再练习递竟式
看看人家一替S都说的啥:
Although more points are made here than are made in sample 6, each of the points made in the 6 essay is developed.  That is not the case here.  In this essay, each point is supported (by perhaps an additional sentence), but it is not further developed.

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

消化一下先。。。

莫名NUID: 146481

我觉得结尾还是必要的,哪怕一句话,至少说明这是一篇完整的文章
是有范文没有结尾,但是我们不一定能写的出范文那样的逻辑那样的内容
另外也觉得survey写的太多
个人以为这篇文章survey不是重点攻击对象
相比之下,其他三段写的有点少,感觉还可以更大程度上的展开

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

这个帖子好热闹，up一下！

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

Originally posted by 莫名N at 2005-8-13 20:26
我觉得结尾还是必要的,哪怕一句话,至少说明这是一篇完整的文章
是有范文没有结尾,但是我们不一定能写的出范文那样的逻辑那样的内容
另外也觉得survey写的太多
个人以为这篇文章survey不是重点攻击对象
相比之 ...

中肯，谢过！

练习中。。。

onwayUID: 2369757

强烈支持莫名斑竹的，不要攻击survey。