Argument85 泡面8.14作业，这次没限时，狂扯一通

littlemouseUID: 191059

Argument85  
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The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper.
'Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow.'
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In this letter the arguer suggests Myrians to reelect Governor Winslow based on the description of the city of Maria and the comparison with Mr. Homer. But if we analyze the argument carefully we can inevitably detect there are several problems making the suggestion unconvincing.

Firstly, the description of the City of Myria cannot illustrate Winslow is a successful leader. The arguer merely provide the situation of the average wage in this year, what about the first three years? Are the average wage increases much lower or higher than before? What about the absolute quantity of the wage? Is the quantity of the wage lower or higher than other cities? Moreover, the number of people who report being unemployed ha decreased by 10 percent is also too vague to give any convincing information. On one hand, the number reported does not equal to the real number of unemployed people concerning there maybe some people are missed; on the other hand, the number maybe still much more than other cities even smaller than before. Additionally, it is likely because that there are a lot of people migrate to the city causing the construction of new homes up rather than the leadership of Winslow. Even if we accept that Myria really enjoyed unprecedented prosperity, we still cannot ascribe that to Winslow alone. All the leaders and citizens in the city should contribute to the prosperity together.

Secondly, the information of only a small number of new businesses opened also cannot prove Mr. Homer is a loser. Perhaps the businesses opened there are international companies which employ a lot of citizens and improve the local economic greatly. It is entirely likely that the original economical situation of that city is quite poor, the new opened business just an evidence indicating the good leadership of Homer. What’s more, the arguer do not provide any informative details about the particular factors of that city, such as the education, the medical service, the insurance and the environment all of which should be important elements indicating the quality of life. How can we say Mr. Homer does not a qualified leader in the city without considering all these factors?

Finally, the arguer also commits a fallacy of false dilemma. Even if we admit the assumption that Winslow is a more successful leader than Homer, the suggestion of this argument is still unreasonable. What about the situation in the following four years? The success or failure in the last tenure cannot guarantee the similar result in the flowing term. We should also take the plan of the two candidates in consideration. What’s more, it is highly possible that there are other competitors besides Homer, how can the arguer conclude Winslow is the best one among all of them without comparing with other candidates? The arguer unfairly rules out the possibility that there maybe someone much more suitable than Winslow.

Judging from all the discussions stated above, we can find that the suggestion is unwarranted. The arguer should provide more exact statistics and powerful evidence to support his suggestion. Otherwise, we have enough reasons to suspect the reliability of his/her recommendation.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-16 at 11:39 ]