argument65 决战830拍砖组tm 作业

yxepochUID: 2124411

65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

1、        威斯康星的奶酪best-selling，并不代表国产的其他奶酪就受欢迎
2、        survey的调查对象不具有代表性
3、        discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses不一定能够improve profits in all of stores


In this memo, the author suggests that all of their stores should discontinue stocking imported cheese and put their focus on domestic ones. To substantiate the conclusion, he cites the facts that the five best-selling cheeses are those cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin. And also, he quotes a survey, which shows that subscribers prefer to those domestic cheeses. Although it seems to be convincing, I still find several critical flaws as follows.

The threshold problem is that the author uses one example to establish a general conclusion. The fact that cheeses from Wisconsin are popular with consumers doesn’t demonstrate that people welcome all the cheeses produced in other states of the country. It’s highly possible that Wisconsin cheese factories exert to do some innovations in products’ design and spend a lot of money on advertising its products on TV or magazines, so that consumers will get familiar with their cheeses. Without the evidence to show that other cheeses producers of the country also enjoy a great population among the consumers, the author’s conclusion is presumptuous.

Secondly, the survey the author mentioned in this memo is statistically unreliable. Concerning about the survey, the author hasn’t provided the information that how many people have attended the survey? Were they chosen for the survey randomly or did they volunteer for the survey? Even though they were the ones willing to attend the survey, were their responses really representing all the population’s taste? If most of them are middle-aged women who go to the supermarket or stores constantly, the survey’s result is unconvincing because it has omitted the responses from the young and the olds who also have a large consumption of cheeses. Without detailed information about the survey, the author’s assertion cannot convince me.

Last but not least, the measures to discontinue stocking varieties of imported cheese and to concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses wouldn’t suffice to the result of improving profits. As we all know, profitability is a function of both expenses and revenues. Even though it proves to be true that citizens like domestic cheeses better than imported ones, it is probably possible that the stores will spend more money to promote its unknown cheeses’ brands, which offset the reduced expenses by limiting inventory. Otherwise, common sense tells us that domestic products are generally cheaper than imported ones, therefore we cannot assure that how much profits the stores will obtain if all their products are from national producers.

As it stands, the suggestion the author asserts is not convincing. To make it more credible, the author should provide us with more detailed information about the survey. To better evaluate the assertion, we should also be clear about their previous sales records of domestic cheeses. (452 words/30 minutes)

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-17 at 23:05 ]

zhizhiUID: 2123761

In this memo, the author suggests that all of their stores should discontinue stocking imported cheese and put their focus on domestic ones. To substantiate the conclusion, he cites the facts that the five best-selling cheeses are those cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin. And also, he quotes a survey, which shows that subscribers prefer to those domestic cheeses. Although it seems to be convincing, I still find several critical flaws as follows.(开头没得说:))

The threshold problem is that the author uses one example to establish a general conclusion. The fact that cheeses from Wisconsin are popular with consumers doesn’t demonstrate that （加个all the 强调一下）people welcome all the(人家可没有说是all the 而是domestic)  cheeses produced in other states of the country. It’s highly possible that Wisconsin cheese factories exert to do some innovations in products’ design and spend a lot of money on advertising its products on TV or magazines, so that consumers will get familiar with their cheeses. Without the evidence to show that other cheeses producers of the country also enjoy a great population among the consumers, the author’s conclusion is presumptuous.(逻辑很不错的说 呵呵)

Secondly, the survey the author mentioned in this memo is statistically unreliable. Concerning about the survey, the author hasn’t（用不到完成时把） provided the information that how many people have attended the survey? Were they chosen for the survey randomly or did they volunteer for the survey? Even though they were the ones willing to attend the survey, were their responses really representing all the population’s taste? If most of them are middle-aged women who go to the supermarket or stores constantly, the survey’s result is unconvincing because it has omitted the responses from the young and the olds who also have a large consumption of cheeses. Without detailed information about the survey, the author’s assertion cannot convince me.

Last but not least, the measures to discontinue stocking varieties of imported cheese and to concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses wouldn’t suffice to the result of improving profits. As we all know, profitability is a function of both expenses and revenues. Even though it proves to be true that citizens like domestic cheeses better than imported ones, it is probably possible that the stores will spend more money to promote its unknown cheeses’ brands, which offset the reduced expenses by limiting inventory. Otherwise, common sense tells us that domestic products are generally cheaper than imported ones,（最好不要这样说 还是用个假设的好 if …… 这样子 否则就同样存在逻辑漏洞） therefore we cannot assure that how much profits the stores will obtain if all their products are from national producers.

As it stands, the suggestion the author asserts is not convincing. To make it more credible, the author should provide us with more detailed information about the survey. To better evaluate the assertion, we should also be clear about their previous sales records of domestic cheeses.